The bond market is an indication of the economy and stock markets

Some of us are waiting for the session at least 2022 in the financial markets. Will the year 2025 become the year of correction, or do high asset prices reflect a real economy on the outskirts of a major surge in productivity due to artificial intelligence and reducing tax on companies and a wave of liberation or removing organizational restrictions? No one knows it for sure. However, in 2025 I will monitor a few indicators to find out where the financial markets are heading. Most of these indicators are related to the bond market because it is a window about the performance of the economy as a whole on the one hand, and an important factor in evaluating stocks and dangerous assets on the other. Data related to stocks, commodities and currencies can be contradictory and unclear, while effects can explain to us where things are going, including government policy. The bonus in the effects. In my opinion, this bonus is the best indication of the macro -economic direction (and thus in the direction of the financial markets), and this represents the difference between the return on long -term effects and short -term. Unlike short -term ties, which are much influenced by monetary policy, the longest effects reflect the economic outlook and their expectations. What will take the time bonus next year will become a good sign of the market’s conviction of President Donald Trump’s agenda for growth, or that he believes that the threat of customs duties, debt and high inflation is hindering their performance. If the term bonus increases, the interest rate on the bonds will remain high – and the concept of “high interest rates for a longer period” will turn into an “rise in interest rates forever”, which can cause problems. The term bonus monitors the risks of inflation and fear of the low prices of effects due to the high debt, and what happens to the dollar due to the possibility of imposing customs duties. If the term continues to rise, it indicates an increase in risks, manure and ambiguity in the economy, and that the United States really entered into a new economic era, which represents the end of the beautiful time when interest rates in the first decade of this millennium were low. The economy has not yet been severely damaged due to high interest rates because many lenders have received their loans at low interest rates. However, that can change quickly. The private credit market actually suffers from some problems, with some lenders stumbling in payment, and homeowners withdraw the mortgage loans with changing interest, hoping to lower interest rates, and the possibility of reducing taxes without managing the necessary financing indicates that things can deteriorate to the worst. And if the term bonus continues to increase, it can end until the year 2025 pays the interest rates we all fear. If this allowance manages, the field will expand a lot before Trump to implement its agenda. The differences in the yield on German and French ties are witness to a long -term crisis. Many of the Euro region countries suffer from debt, age and low productivity. However, the biggest challenge facing the region in the short term stems from the structure of the economy in the eurozone, which is apparently implicit support for the bond market in European countries, most extravagant and excessive like France, enabling it to overcome some issues such as the reform of the pension system. The Greek debt crisis revealed the boundaries of these kinds of promises. The increase in yield differences indicates the instability of the markets, and it may begin to question the extent and possibility of betting on Germany in maintaining the stability of the situation, which suffers from its own problems. The returns of Argentina effects, Argentina, experience an important economic experience on the possibility of reducing inflation rates, while at the same time achieving growth, by following a responsible financial policy and achieving the stability of the currency. And if it succeeds, it is a great victory for neoliberal economic policy, despite the reputation of Javier Milli as a populist president. The extent of the success is the extent to which the Argentine bond market has long been besieged, with enough confidence to restore foreign investors, and the resulting low returns. And if the bond market is capable of returning to wealth, neoliberalism can also return, and the world sees an improvement in trade and financial discipline. Inflation expectations perhaps the direction of inflation is the most important economic events in 2025, and the best indicators in this direction are market expectations and individuals. Of course, the US Federal Reserve is concerned about these expectations when it sets its monetary policy, which can also become self -examination expectations. If you expect inflation to rise by 3%, this may affect the type of increase you need in wages. The market expectations can also be self -examination, and these expectations have a significant impact on bond prices. Expectations are also a good indication of the Federal Reserve of credibility or not, although it has truly eliminated inflation, or that the high inflation rate has now become a permanent element of our economic lives. If the Federal Reserve says “inflation expectations are under control”, it usually indicates expectations in the bond market. Although the bond market does not have a good record in the field of inflation, there is no interest in what this market believes. It is also useful to look at the surveys of inflation for exile, regarding the value of the broker and the rate of distribution, to know the degree of confidence among people about the risks of inflation.