Energy Agency: Critical metal supplies run the risk of great disorder

Critical minerals have a growing risk to a ‘serious deviation’ due to their large concentration in single countries and the distribution of export restrictions, according to a report issued by the International Energy Agency. The agency indicated in the 2025 forecast report on Wednesday that the progress in achieving more diversification with supply chains will take slowly, and that the investment momentum has slowed after the decline in expansion of spending last year, and the lack of growth in exploration activities, and the financing of upcoming projects has shown. In terms of copper, lehium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare soil minerals, the agency revealed that the average market share of the largest producing countries increased to 86% in 2024, while all growth in supply depends mainly on a single supplier, such as Indonesia regarding nickel and China for other minerals. The agency pointed out that 55% of the strategic minerals associated with the energy included in the report are currently subject to the form of export, and at the same time expand the scope of the restrictions, it is no longer limited to raw and purified minerals, but rather includes treatment techniques. The increase in copper supply deficit China is the most important purification side of 19 out of 20 metals included in the agency’s analysis, and the average market share is about 70%. Although the sizes of the market of some mineral can be small, supply disorders can lead to major economic consequences, and according to the agency, 15 mineral prices have shown big prices compared to oil. The energy agency also sheds light on the major risks that threaten copper markets, in the light of the countries’ efforts to expand electricity networks, while mining projects are currently being implemented that the supply deficit will reach by 2035. What the minerals used in batteries will lead the significant increase in supply – the leadership of China, Indonesia and some countries in Africa – to low pressure on prices. There are also different batteries techniques the risk of great concentration, as China controls the supply chains of biomass, such as manganese sulfate and phosphoric acid.