JB Morgan warns: Stagnation in the market approaches 80%

The JP Morgan Chase Group said the fear of the recession in the shares directly related to the US economy has increased sharply to approach 80%, while credit market investors still handle the scene with relative calm, despite indications of the escalation of financing pressure. According to the panel for the recession indicators, the market is the ‘Russell 2000’ index, which focuses on small businesses exposed to major losses in the last sale wave, is now 79%economic stagnation. Other asset categories also indicate similar possibilities, as the “S&B 500” index reflects a 62%possibility, while basic industrial minerals show a possibility of stagnation by 68%. As for the treasury effects for five years, they show a 54%possibility. On the other hand, the chances of stagnation in the investment market bond market are about 25%, although it was in November. The strategy at JP Morgan, Nikolaos Banghirzglu, said: “The Russell 2000 index, as it is a periodic indicator in nature, contains important information about the periodic economic situation in America. This is currently facilitating the possibility of an average recession of about 80%. Moralism increases darker, economic morale weakens in light of the suffering of money and managers in companies as a result of market fluctuations as a result of President Donald Trump’s increase in his commercial war. On Tuesday, the shares have been expanded with its biggest wave since 2022, after the White House confirmed its intention to continue the imposition of 104% on Chinese goods. The S&B 500 index fell by about 3%to approach the entry into a falling market. The JP Morgan group is the possibility of stagnation by comparing the previous peaks in the various asset categories with the bottom recorded during the periods of economic shrinkage. It is striking that pessimism that has wiped out trillions of dollars in the category can reduce the ceiling of expectations to prepare a recovery, if positive news on policies or economics is received. The bond market has not yet included the risk of recession in return. As the trade war increases, the decline in the credit market can lead to a greater pressure on the financial system, while the liquidity is tightened and the risk of the bankruptcy of companies increases. The high -quality US bond market has been reopened for the first time on Tuesday since the announcement of the fees last week, which caused credit market disorder. “The strong basic principles of companies make credit investors skeptical about the rise of a credit cycle, even in the slow growing scenario. Historically, credit markets have been proven to be right most of the time,” Banghirzgoglu said. Economists increase the possibility of recession, economists in different institutions, from their estimates of the possibility of recession. In a poll conducted by ‘Bloomberg’ on April 2 and 3, 92% of participating economists said that the imposition of comprehensive customs duties increased the risk of being exposed to stagnation over the next 12 months. JP Morgan, led by Bruce Kasman, raised the possibility of global recession to 60% last week. Bank chief economist at the bank, Michael Ferrol, reduced its forecast for real GDP growth from 1.3% to a negative 0.3%.