Jonathan Lain: Don't leave the stock market but rather your strategy

There has always been controversy over whether the inventory values ​​were very high, and the heat has recently increased with the registration of the “Standard & Poor’s 500” index of its highest historical level last week. Of the 20 evaluation measures followed by Savita Supramian of Bank of America, four of which reached records, while 19 of them rose according to historical standards. Yes, these high complications still do not occur regularly, but before you announce that the shares are about to explode, some important warnings should be taken into account. Jonathan Levin: The stock challenge pessimists and their rise in general reflect the multiplier “Standard & Poor’s 500”. The current weight structure based on the market value of the index, the increasing dominance of some important technology stocks and some extremist values. In fact, the equal weight version of the index – which puts $ 10 billion on an equal footing value, with the company “Invidia” and its value 4.3 trillion dollars – a price rate to a mixed future profitability of only 17.8, which is ten years more than average. In other words, a small group of ‘new arrivals are very expensive’, or companies on which speculators have been focused on the ‘Standard & Poor’s 500’ over the past few years, which makes it look much more expensive. The input of the time of motivation and the epidemic is exaggerated and their shares were increased for public circulation, or reached their peak during the demand for risk in risk in 2020 and 2021, as the government motivated the economy to trille dollars to face the global pandemic, and the federal reserve reduced the standard rates to almost zero. At that time, it was very easy for investors from the indicators of large companies to ignore new businesses, but it is now impossible with the increasing weight of the index, and its composition has changed in ways that will not be under the impression of many investors who tend to keep going. To determine the most influential companies about the price ratio to the index, I looked at high complications and large weights. In this graph, these businesses represent points on the right of most of their peers. From 2020 to 2024, the most prominent businesses were “Tesla” (194.9 Profitable BIS), Palantir Technologies (223.1), Xon Enterprise (92.4), Craoud Straik Holdings (Crowdstrike Holdings) (109.6). As for the 2025 category, Robin Hood Markets (59.9), Queen Pace Global (51.2) and Applovin (53.2). The fear of closing and new customs duties limits Wall Street’s profits, perhaps the performance of this group in September – especially “Tesla” – was the difference in indicators. If you offer from the index, “Tesla” and “Balnter”, you can reduce the double of the index by about 0.7 to 22 times the future profits (from 22.7 Friday), provided it is replaced by ‘ordinary’ arrows, which I set here with a double profit. If you give up the rest of the new speculative businesses, you will be double less at 21.8. Another option is to get rid of two pioneering companies in the field of basic consumer goods: “Costo Holsel” and “Lamart”. As I wrote last month, these shares are one of the biggest puzzles in the market. Although they are relatively adult companies with narrow profit margins, both have seen an increase in their judgments to the levels of ‘Invidia’ and what is meant here ‘and Lamart’ or the highest and I mean ‘Costacho’, and they are now much higher than their average for the period between 2015 and 2024. Is great, and is great, and their view of them as the leading shares in all environment is great, and is great, and believes that they are in all environments in all environment. The fluctuations of economic sessions. Amna’s secure shares, it is irony that its reputation as a safe investment may have caused the high prices of its shares to growing levels. Her penetration of the market is so deep with it, it is difficult to suggest where you will find the growth that justifies the high judgments. So, if we abandon these two arrows, we can reduce the assessments of the indicator by 0.2 points- and this is not a fundamental change, but rather a gradual improvement. If we also give up new businesses, the future index gain will be doubled 21.6 times. This leads us to the actual topic that cannot be ignored, which is ‘Invidia’, as the manufacturer of the discs supporting the mutation of artificial intelligence is the largest comet in evaluating the current index, and the largest index revenue over the past few years. Is it worth selling their shares and enjoying comfort? Maybe not. As the ‘Goldman Sachs’ group analysts explained, artificial intelligence trading’ started in the stock market with Invidia (the first phase), and most real artificial intelligence profits are still achieved. However, this agreement has since been transferred to including the shares of the artificial intelligence infrastructure (the second phase), and expands to influence the evaluation of software shares and technology services (the third phase). Eventually, Goldman expects the agreement to include a variety of other sectors as they see productive benefits of new technology (the fourth phase). Invidia has still achieved sales and profits comparable to optimism, but some observers said after the end of the first phase of the trade. How long will the senior client continue to spend money to buy money to buy the graphic processing units he produces? What will happen if a competitive business can enter its competitiveness? Even if the optimism about artificial intelligence continues, it can be the best return to risk to move to the subsequent stages of investment opportunities. When you sell “Invidia”, the price dual will drop by 0.7’s future profitability of the index. Collect this step with other ideas here and will reach 20.9. Is it an appropriate intellectual experience? The last option is closer to an intellectual experience than a serious proposal. This is the balance of the portfolio on the principle: “In the case of an emergency, the glass”- the option you don’t even use after your Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Monger have visited a dream to tell you that the end of the world is near. What about maneuver? Sell ​​your possessions throughout the information technology sector, including ‘invitation’ and many of the expensive new businesses. Technology enterprises form an extraordinary percentage of 34.6% of the index, and their future profitability is 29.9, which means that you can reduce your wallet profitability by 2.9 points once this change is caused. 5 Risks for the US stock market in the second half of the year by combining it with other steps will reach a future profit material of 19. But who can dare take an extremist step like this that can lead to the late of all possible profits in the near intelligence? The good news is that high assessments are still not widespread in the market. If you tend to worry about such matters, there are many ways to sleep a sleep without going out. In some of these cases, differences may not be very difficult. For example, it could be a relatively easy to get rid of the new stocks we referred to, because some investors did not want this amount of stock investment with a multiplier profitability of more than 100 in the first place. Tesla has seen large fluctuations with slight yields in particular since the peak in 2021. It is true that you are still unable to return to old assessments without experiencing very difficult decisions, but that you can at least approach them.