Expert View: Nifty 50 may cross 28k by next Diwali; these sectors can generate alpha, says Rahul Ghose of Hedged.in

Expert view on Indian stock market: Rahul Ghose, the founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, believes the Nifty 50 can cross the 28,000 mark by next Diwali, supported by global liquidity, domestic inflows and a resilient corporate balance sheet. In an interview with Mint, Ghose shared his outlook on the Indian stock market, key risks to the market and sectors that can generate alpha in Samvat 2082. Here are edited excerpts from the interview: Samvat 2081 was a disappointment for the Indian market. What can cause a setback in Samvat 2082? Earnings recovery, improving liquidity and political stability are the key factors markets will look for in a potential recovery. FIIs were largely net sellers in calendar year 2025; for them to return, earnings recovery must occur. If corporate profitability grows by 12-13 percent over the next 12 months, led by a revival in consumption, continued capital investment and easing of inflation, markets will take it positively. Where do you see the market by next Diwali? Can the Nifty 50 be above 28k? There is a possibility to see Nifty at those levels. Technically, 2025 was largely a year of consolidation, with markets moving in a broader range. Going by historical patterns, a rally followed by such consolidation is considered healthy. If there are no downside surprises, the Nifty 50 could very well break out after this consolidation and move towards the 28,000 levels. Supporting global liquidity, domestic inflows of over 25,000 crore per month via SIP, and a resilient corporate balance sheet would make this realistic. What are the main risks that investors should not overlook? Are these risks more external or internal? The primary risks may arise from the external environment. Global growth slowdown, trade tensions and currency volatility may cause temporary outflows. Locally, risks are limited to valuation surpluses in select mid-cap stocks. Overall, India remains fundamentally stronger than most emerging markets. Considering the current growth and inflation trajectory, do you think the RBI can cut rates further from here? Yes, there is scope for another rate cut by December 2025. With inflation below 3 percent, the RBI minutes hinted at an accommodative policy to support growth. Repo rates could move from 5.50 percent to 5.25 percent by the end of the year. The US Fed is expected to cut rates in October and December. How might this affect emerging markets like India? Fed cuts weaken the dollar and improve flows in emerging markets. A softer dollar reduces external debt costs and supports commodity and equity inflows. For India, this could mean renewed foreign interest, a stronger rupee and possibly increased participation from foreign funds. Which sectors can generate alpha in Samvat 2082? Finance, cars and power have the potential to generate alpha. Banks may benefit from strong credit expansion and reduced NPAs, while the consumption boost will help autos. Power will emerge as a structural theme. Read all market related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purpose only. The opinions and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Munt. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.