A New Way to Spot Tremors in Prediction Markets

Formar Instacart Engineer Nikshep Saravanan Has Spun Up A New Project Called Tremor.liveBuilt With Claude Code and Deployed Via Vercel.

Tremor tracks volatility on Pollemarketa Prediction Market that lets trades bet on the outcome of Future Events. The Goal of Saravanan’s New Tool: Spot Sudden Swings and Identify Potentially Valuable Situations Where Insider May Know More than the General Population.

“If the Chance of a Ceasefire in a War Jumps from 50% to 80%, but there’s no news, ITH’S LIKELY ACTIDE IS ACTING ON POLYMARKET,” Saravanan Told me.

For instance, someone probably knew Tay Tay was getting Hitched ahead of time and traded on it.

Tremor Currently Monitors About 500 Active Predixion Markets on polymyt, detecting price movements in real-time. Each Shift is scored on a 0-10 intensity scale.

  • Extreme is over 7.5 and denote Major Market Movements with a bright red button.
  • High is 5 to 7.5, and has an orange dot.
  • Moderation = 2.5 to 5 with a Yellow Marker.
  • Low is 0 to 2.5 and Captures Minor Fluctuations with a White Button.

Tremor also integrates with x, via grok’s api, scanning tweets for relevant chatter that coulud explain why a particular markets on polymymarkt is moving. It then summarizes those findings, giving trades and analysts a snapshot of whereer shifts are tied to emerging publication, or if the silence suggests insider positioning.

I checked it out on wednesday afternion, and this predixion markets Moved the most in the past 24 hours on polymyt, accorting to Tremor.live: “Will Tesla Launch Robotaxis in California in 2025?” IT HAD A 7.7 Intensity Rating, Denoting An Extreme Move.

“Traders Appear to be positioning for a Likely delay or Cancellation of Tesla’s Robotaxi Launch in California with 2025, anticipating that unresolved technical or regulatory willsues – hinted at reccent posts on x from insults – cully push the Timeline Further,” Tremor explained in an ai-a-a-a-ai-summary of relevant posts on X.

Still in its MVP Stage, tremor is evolving quickly. Saravanan is adding new features and ha posted the Project on Gititub for oters to explore.

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