What challenges will solve a good Muson?

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Economy a Madhavan 3 min read April 18, 2025, 05:30 Hours IT Earlier this week, IMD, India’s national meteorological service provider, predicted that the Southwest Moeson would be above normal this year. (Ani) Summary IMD predicts an above -average monsoon, which is essential for India’s agriculture and economy. Increased rainfall may reduce the inflation of food, allowing the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates and stimulate consumption. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted an above normal monsoon this year. It must be music for the ears of the policy makers. Mint looks at the importance of a good monsoon and how it will solve some challenges that the Indian economy is facing. Are we another year of good rain? It looks like that. Earlier this week, IMD, the National Meteorological Service Provider of India, predicted that the Southwest Mosson would be above normal this year. The rainfall, added, would be about 105% of the LPA – long period average (1971-2020), which is 87 cm. Last week, a private weather forecaster Skymet predicted a normal monsoon at 103% of the long period on average. Even in a 5%margin error, India is for big rain this year. IMD placed the probability of above normal monsoon at 59%. However, parts of the North West, Northeast and Peninsular India can end up under normal rainfall. Read also | Mint Primer | Down, not out: Will WTO live to see another day? How was the monsoon in the past year? The monsoon in 2024 was the best in four years. According to IMD’s end of the monsoon data, the country received 935 mm of rainfall on September 30, 2024. This places the total precipitation on 8% more than the LPA, which is 870 mm. The last time the country received higher rainfall was in 2020 when it exceeded the normal level by more than 10%. In recent years, the Southwest Mooson has not disappointed. Between 2019 and 2024, the precipitation fell slightly below the LPA at 821 mm in 2023. In other years it produced great rain. Read also | Mint Primer: Can Indian Diamond Export sparkle again? What can Spoilsport play? El Nino, a weather pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, causes the southwest mushon to underperform and make less precipitation. Fortunately, IMD said that El Nino factors are neutral and are expected to remain so until June when the monsoon enters. La Nina conditions – Cooler sea surface in the Pacific, is strong and it typically causes good rainfall. Read also | Mint Primer | Will it get better or worse? TCS points to cautious growth ahead of why a normal monsoon is critical to India? With almost 50% of the agricultural land in India remaining, farmers are very dependent on the monsoon to wet their crops. Even well -irrigated countries depend on water from storage and a good monsoon fills the reservoirs. Most importantly, a normal monsoon doesn’t just mean a good amount of rain. The rain should be distributed well during the season to make the farming process possible. Continuous excessive rain or a long gap between rain will cause distress. A large and well -distributed monsoon will mean higher agricultural production and leave farmers with better earnings. How will it benefit the economy? Higher agricultural production will facilitate food prices and consequently food inflation. Lower inflation will start for the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates. The Indian economy is limited by lower consumption today. A good monsoon will accelerate the revival in rural consumption. Lower interest rates and recent soups in the form of reduction of income tax rate can revive urban spending that has fallen recently. A consumption revival can cause private investment. Higher consumption and increased private investment supported by government spending will accelerate economic growth, estimated at 6.4%in 2024-25. Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #imd Monsoon #Primer #rainfall #Monsoon #Monsoon Up #Conomy #India #Weather News #Weather Forecast Currency Specials