"Negotiation Documents" .. How have International Banks described Trump duties?

In light of a general agreement for the almost imposition of new customs duties, some believe that the accent of US president’s election Donald Trump is just a negotiating tactic, and expects real commercial measures to be very targeted and less severe than the worst expected scenarios. However, China seems to bear its greater burden. Below are the most important expectations of US banks and businesses on customs duties in 2025, as Bloomberg monitored: BCA research expects ‘BCA research’ that the Trump administration in 2025 will take major trade measures, which can reflect negatively on the global and US economies. It also expects to impose a major customs law next year, which includes the possibility of applying 10% fees to all US imports or large fees on Chinese imports. And that indicates that Trump’s proposals exceeded that were applied between 2018 and 2019, to the extent that partial procedures can cause in a major global shock. ‘Citi’, the ‘city’ team believes that the most important scenario of Trump’s policy will include customs, expanding the tax cuts approved by Trump in 2017, reducing immigration flow, widespread cancellation of the organizational regulations placed during the Bidenera, and a possible increase in economic activity. This mix is ​​expected to lead to moderate enlargement in the United States, with an almost -not economic impact on US economic growth. “Comicsa” adopts the company “Comerica”, which will contribute to pushing the wheel of industrial production in the short term, and will result in high prices of consumer and capitalist goods, which increase inflation rates. Expectations also indicate that immigration restrictions will limit the growth of the workforce. Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank) expects Deutsche Bank to increase by 10 degrees Celsius in the first half of the year (with an additional 10 degree points in the second half) (with an additional 10 degree points in the second half). Expectations also include the introduction of equal fees on cars imported from Europe, and the application of basic world fees of 5% by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. Policy makers are likely to make their best to compensate for the loss of exports by improving local demand. Ie, undoubtedly, will not be able to implement all his plans as his policy contradicts each other. For example, controlling the cost of living, by quickly reducing inflation, is not in line with customs duties on imports and a migration ban. ‘Goldman Sachs’ is probably a large part of the new Trump administration policy, as well as modest additional tax discounts, increased federal spending and relieving organizational regulations. This mix is ​​designed to improve local businesses and influence foreign activities, and can therefore continue to support capital flow to the United States against the rest of the world and support the dollar in general. The negative effects of comprehensive customs duties on the macro -economic economy and the market are the reason why it is not included in our primary scenario, but we see a 40% possibility of implementing it, making it an insufficient risk within possible scenarios. “Jefferies” We believe that the current concerns in the markets on Trump’s financial expansion and the impact of customs duties are exaggerated. We also see that the US financial deficit will increase, but we believe that financial policies will not be negative to the extent that the market fears. Likewise, we see that the fees are just a negotiation tool for Trump and will not have a significant negative impact on growth as they are now feared. Macquarie is likely to apply customs faster duties, with a gradual increase in the level of fees imposed on China and other countries over time. This will affect the growth and inflation slightly in the second half, with the increasing winds up to 2026. Parcalays Private Bank is any major trauma associated with customs duties that should be short -term. Similarly, as companies and consumers have adapted to the ‘trade war’ in the first Trump administration, the US economy is expected to exceed the impact of the new fees within several quarters. ‘Capital Group’ priorities for the economic policy of the Trump 2.0 administration, which include tax cuts, customs duties and the abolition of organizational restrictions that can support US economic growth and risk rates. But it can also lead to a high value of the dollar, inflation and interest rates. It is also likely that financial markets and interest rates are likely to see extensive fluctuations with investors dealing with policy trends. Charles Schwab If there are lessons from history, it is that the threats of customs pests only negotiate on instruments aimed at concluding agreements with China and other countries, and it can be less harmful to economic growth, inflation, sales and multinational enterprises. JP Morgan aset management while the details and timing of potential changes in US policy are still unclear, we expect there to be tax cuts, higher fees, reducing immigration flow and cancel organizational restrictions in various sectors. LGIM (LGIM) indicates that customs duties can contribute to strengthening the power of the US dollar, due to the impact of foreign exchange movements that restore the balance for commercial flow due to relative change in prices and upward pressure on interest rates due to high inflation. However, we believe that this opinion overlooks the potential impact of fees on capital flow. “Morgan Stanley” economists in Morgan Stanley see that customs duties can lead to a slowdown in economic activity, so the fees can become a burden on the growth of the US economy by late 2025 and in 2026. TD Sikurite “The expectations indicate that the first phase of the new Trump state is an increase in the worldwide trade. As this reflects the impact of global trading tension and the associated customs fees. 2026 Similarly to worsen if more strict fees are applied. Schroders, although the application of comprehensive customs duties may experience legal problems, but the uncertainty that results from it will lead US businesses to relocate their production within the country. This economic growth in the United States is expected to increase at the expense of neighboring countries. On the other hand, we expect other countries to take cash incentives to meet these consequences.