Chikungunya spreads quickly, it is difficult to predict the outbreak: study

New -delhi, October 4 (IANS). According to a study, mosquito -borne disease is unpredictable size and the severity of the outbreak of Chikungunya. Common viruses in tropical and subtropical regions, including Asia, Africa and South America, cause symptoms such as acute fever, followed by joint pain that can last for months. Although Chikungunya virus is rarely deadly, it can be especially serious for individuals at high risk, including newborns and old people. In a new study published in Science Advana, researchers at the University of Notre Dame, USA, analyzed more than 80 outbreaks of the Chikungunya virus for predicting the development of the outbreak and vaccine development. Alex Perkins, professor of epidemiology of infectious diseases in the Department of Biological Sciences, said: “The outbreaks of Chikungunya are unexpected in size and severity.” Perkins further said: “One outbreak can infect some people, and the other outbreak can infect thousands of people in the same way. This unpredictability makes public health plan and vaccine development so difficult.” For the study, the team renovated 86 Chikungunya outbreaks and analyzed the largest comparative data set of its type. Chikungunya was first identified in the 1950s. Its outbreaks are constantly and wider, but it is also irregular and it is difficult to predict it, which causes a challenge for public health authorities to plan and stop infection. Aedes AEpt of Aedes Albopicts are the most important carriers of Chikungunya. Perkins said the study showed that the climate was not an important factor in estimating the severity of the outbreak of a virus such as Chikungunya. He said: “Climate factors such as temperature and rainfall can tell us where outbreaks are likely, but this study shows that these factors are not very useful to estimate how serious the outbreak will be.” The expert further said: “Local circumstances are important – such as where you live, what is the number of mosquitoes and how the community lives. Some changes are just a coincidence and these irregularities are also part of the story.” -Ians kr/