Press the highest level over the dollar lane next year

Currency options traders have ever been pessimistic about the dollar track in the next year, according to a general measure used to determine the directions of investors. The risk-consequences index fell for a year- a scale that determines the costs associated with purchasing an option compared to its sale in the Options Market to a negative 27 basis points in favor of the sales options for the buying options for the Bloomberg index for the dollar. This number is the lowest registered level ever, according to the “Bloomberg” data dating back to 2011, which goes beyond the levels recorded at the beginning of the market fluctuations due to the corona pandemic five years ago. The view of the dollar has deteriorated in recent months, with the impact of volatile customs duties imposed by President Donald Trump on the markets, which arise doubts about the stability of US policy and economic growth prospects. Although the losses fell following the announcement of a calm in trade tensions between the United States and China earlier this month, the immediate “Bloomberg” index of the dollar has remained with more than 6% low since the beginning of 2025, but the worst performance that started for a year since the launch of the index two decades ago. The index fell 0.2%to a second session on Tuesday. “The negative structural vision against the dollar is still in place because the calm in trade and China is only temporary.” The latest reason that the bets support the dollar is the US financial situation, as the enormous tax package that Trump proposed in Congress emphasizes the federal deficit. Last Friday, Moody’s Moody’s credit rating lowered the United States’s credit rating and pointed out that government debt has increased over the past decade and increased interest payments. The dollar bears the largest burden after reducing the classification as it dropped after the announcement of countries after the announcement, although equity and bond markets did not show a huge response to the news. “What generates more anxiety is the continued absence of political will in Washington to address the weakening in the financial situation, and these actions make the financial markets vulnerable to fluctuations, especially with high stock market judgments.” “The US market has begun to see an unusual blend of long-term-American bond returns in conjunction with the weakness of the dollar. The US US debt path is a negative print force on the dollar, but it has long been marginalized thanks to the currency status as a global reserve.” The negative trend is in the price of options with the broader interests in the derivative market, where traders currently have $ 16.5 billion in financial centers associated with a possible decline in the value of the dollar, according to the data of the US Term Committee until May 13, collected by “Bloomberg”. This level is near the highest pessimism against the dollar since September. At the beginning of the year, traders had about $ 31 billion in luxury bets. But for some, this short -term pessimism can be exaggerated, especially in light of the federal reserve’s commitment to the policy of ‘anticipation’, which can support the yields of the mortgage compared to its international counterparts. “We expect the market to be pessimized against the dollar. Inflation is likely to force federal to wait longer than the traders currently expect, and we believe that economic growth can exceed expectations.” This view is in line with the stability of the dollar recently and its circulation in a narrow range in recent weeks. However, Cathy Jones of Charles Schwab said that long -term expectations a structural decline indicates a structural decline due to America’s move from the global trade assignment to protective policy. She added: “There is a slight refusal in the dollar due to the satisfaction of not implementing the worst customs duties, but long -term expectations still drive investors to be careful.”