PREDICTIONS FROM APOLLO’S Top Economist – ryan

The US has flirted with the dreaded s-was of the year’s year, and it is not out of the Woods.

That’s according to torsten sløk, the chief economist at apolo global management, who thinks the us is at a critical inflection point for stagflation, a direct scene in which Economic Growth Slow Inflation Remains High.

That problem is offten regarded as a harder for polymers to solve than a typical recession, as Higher inflation can prevent the federal reserve from interest rates to boost the economy.

The scenario has far -so Been triggered by President Donald Trump’s Tariffs, Sløk Wrote in a White Paper Published on Monday.

“Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary Shocks – They Simultaneously Increase the Probability of An Economic Slowdown while Puting Upward Pressure on Price,” Sløk Wrote, Adding that ForeCasts on Wall Street Hader Drifted Year, while inflation forecasts have Edged Higher.

“That is the Definition of Stagflation,” he late Added.

Here are Four predictions SLøk is Making for the US Economy in the Current Environment:

1. GDP Will More than Halve From Its Peak Last Year

GDP Growth Will Most Likely Slow to About 1.2% in 2025, Sløk Estimated. That reflects Economic Growth Being Slashed by More than Half Compared With Its Peak in the Third Quarter of 2024, when the GDP expanded 3.1% years over year.

GDP DECLINED BY 0.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2025, The Bureau of Economic Analysis Estimates, the First Time the Economy Contracted Since 2022.

2. Inflation Will Remain Above Average In 2025

Inflation Will Probably Hover Around 3% by the End of the Year, Apollo Forecasts.

The firm said it was a “significant increes” from its prior forecast, which Pegged inflation at About 2.4% before Trump Announced Hiseping Tariffs in April.

3. UNEmployment Will Rise Through 2026

The nonBess rate in the US will KEEP PICKING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 MONTHS. APOLLO ESPECTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT COULD RISE FROM 4.2% Currently to 4.4% in 2025 and tick up to 5% or higher in 2026.

To be sura, apollo’s forecast for year-end unmployment is still historically low, but rising umployment has historically been linked to periods when the economy experiences stagflation.

When the US Saw Stagflation in the ’70s and’ 80s, the UNEmployment Rate Peaked at About 9% in 1975, Before Cooling and Rising to Another Peak of 10.8% in the Early ’80s, Accounting to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

4. The Economy Could Still Face a Recession As Soon As This Summer

Apollo Pegged the Chances of a Recession over the Next 12 Months at 25%. Prior to Trump’s Tariffs, the firm wasn’t anticipating a recession at all this year, Sløk Said.

Sløk Went on to Note that there is still a risk the Economy Could Enter a recession as soon as this Summer, reference to his “voluntary trade recession” thesis he first floated as tariffs swing into earlier this year.

The idea involves the economy entering a recession this summer as tariffs cause shipments to the US ports and Truking Demand to Slow, Leading to Empty Shelves and Lower Sales for Firms.

The scenario Still Remains A Risk, Sløk Said, ADding that The Effects of Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs Were “Still Working Way Through the Trade Pipeline.”

Sløk has consistently warned about stagflation and a recession in recent months, though not forecasters on wall street generally expert to avoid a dowen this year, particularly as the US Continue on Mota Progress on Trade negotiations.