Nifty 50 tends to earn in August shows the history of ten years. Can the trend maintain in the midst of Trump's tariff curve? | Einsmark news

Indian stock market: Benchmark indices held breath in July after an excellent rally of more than a month, as disappointing corporate earnings and persistent foreign outflow on sentiment weighed. The caution of investors was further increased by uncertainty over a potential trading agreement, which ultimately did not meet expectations. US President Donald Trump has thrown a curve in the form of a 25% tariff on imports, along with a warning of unspecified energy and defense -related purchases from Russia. It has promoted the concerns that August, which is generally a positive month for the Indian stock market, could be tempered profits as global conditions and cautious investor sentiment continue. Nifty 50 trend in August historically, July and August is one of the most seasonal positive months for Indian stocks. The Nifty 50 index showed a positive trend during August, which has been delivering profits in six out of the past ten years, according to JM Financial data, with a median yield of 1.4%. While the markets ended the trend in July and so far (until July 30) fell 1.7%, analysts believe that although August can be characterized by volatility, it will probably have a positive trend. Harshal Dasani, business chief, Invasset PMS, said August could offer a turnaround. With the ambiguity around the US stance in the US – India gradually solving – even if the market through an adverse rash such as tariff -skalation – can start stabilizing the market, Dasani said, adding that stocks are historically consolidating when the “event risk” transition is in well -known outcomes. Ashish Chaturmohta, managing director and fund manager, Apex PMS, JM Financial, also said that despite some weakness in July 2025, mainly due to a softer prospect from the IT sector and increased provision in the BFSI segment, the prospects for August are constructive. Its optimism is supported by above -average rainfall and improved reservoir levels, which are expected to increase rural demand and support agriculture, and a decent earnings season. “External environment, especially the US tariff for Indian exports, remains the most important monitabiles and can affect market sentiments. In general, the market sentiment for August 2025 seems positive and is in line with historical averages,” Chaturmohta said. While analysts have an impact of Trump’s tariff threat on export-heavy sectors, with a full-fledged trade war, they see limited disadvantage. Emkay Global, in a note today, said that while it appears that trade conversations have stopped, we believe this saga is far from over. “Except for pure economy, such negotiations carry a significant geopolitical weight. Despite a possible shift in the balance of negotiating power, we believe that both sides are likely to be offended soon,” it says. India’s exports to the US are only 2% of GDP, with a much lower added value in them. According to Emkay estimates, the previous static analysis indicates that the US exports of India may decrease by $ 30-33 billion (0.8-0.9% of GDP) at 25%+ rates, and not adapted for the complexity of dynamic cross-country hits/answers. Although the announcement has added some disadvantaged risks, it is too early to consider the actual prediction changes, it added. “In fact, with the rupee stabilizing near £ 87.5 and Brent rough that relieves under $ 73, the most important macro-stressors in prices seem. World returns, “Dasani. How should investors position themselves? As the market is expected to be volatile in the midst of event -driven swings, Bonanza research analyst Khushi Mistry advised to adopt a cautious and selective approach. “It is wise to emphasize the major cap companies with strong balance sheets and steady exposure to domestic demand, such as financial and consumer sector, rather than chasing risky small and midcap shares.” Gradual congestion on market dips can capture value while maintaining the discipline, Mistrub recommended. Jashan Arora, director of Master Trust Group, also advised investors to invest selectively, focusing on major caps and quality sectors such as banking, capital goods and car. “Be careful in small shells. A weakened approach to investment can help navigate any volatility in the short term.” Important drivers for August could include global interest rate signals, crude oil prices, domestic inflation and GDP data, and any geopolitical developments, along with FII attitude, Arora added. Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or brokerage companies, and not of currency. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making investment decisions.