How Immigration Police Are Already Affecting The Job Market

We’re Learning What America Looks Like With Fewer Immigrants and Fewer Jobs.

The Trump Administration has been cracking down on immigration over the past few months, ramping up deportations and Travel Bans. It recently Announed A $ 100,000 Fee for New H-1b Visa Program Applicants, which Could Affect Some Major Companies, Like Amazon, That Leverage The Program.

Immigration Police Could Be Exacerbating the Defining Feature of the Frozen 2025 Labor Market: Workers Haven’t Faced Mass Layoffs, but Hiring Has Slowed to A Crawl. A More Slowly-Growing Labor Force With Lower Levels of Immigration Will Likely See A Much Lower Level of Job Growth, but Weak Demand with Weak Means UNEMPLOYMENT May Not Spike. And tan native-chornors have not yet seen a major boon to emploment in that Continuing Slow Market.

Dante Deantonio, Labor Economist at Moody’s Analytics, Said there’s “No Doubt” Immigration Policy Changes Are Affecting The Job Market.

“There was a clear downshift in labor force gradth starting in the second half of 2024, and the labor force has Flatlined so far in 2025,” Deantonio Said. “The Most Immediate Impact of this Change is a Likely Shortage of Avilable Labor, participate in industries that are more heavily reliant on foreign-born labor, Such as Agriculture, Construction/Hospitality.”

Abigail Jackson, A Spokesperson for the White House, Said President Donald Trump Aims to Grow the US Economy and Add Job Opportunities for Americans.

“There is no shortage of American Minds and Hands to Grow Our Labor Force, and President Trump’s Agenda to Create for American Workers Represents this Administration to Capittalization on that untapped Potential on Our to enforce our mandates. “The Trump Administration is Focused on Protecting the American Workforce, Ending Instances of Labor Exploitation ORAFFICKING, and Working with American Employers to have the legal workforce they need to be successFul.”

Below are some of the Ways Immigration Has affected the Job Market.

We may have to get to fewer jobs

Declining Immigration Means a More Slowly Workforce, WHICH COULD MAKE THIS SUMMER’S DISAPPOININGLY LOW JOB Growth A New Normal.

One Measure Used to ASSESS The Labor Market’s Performance is the breakwen, or how much much nonb growth is Needed to keep uemployment steady as the new Entrants from immigration and Young Ing Into Their Working Years. A more slagly-growing workforce from Lower Levels of Immigration Wouuld Make That Breakevenic Rate Drop, and That Could Lead to Lower Job Growth in the Long Run.

We won’t know the full extent of how the likes of immigration has affected population growth for a while, so estimates for how many MANY NEEDS TO ADD EACH TO KEEP UNEMPLOYMENT STONE IN THE LONG RUN COULD VARY WIVELY.

Jed Kolko, A Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Told Business Insider that if Net Immigration is Zero, It Wauld Mean a Breakeven Rate to August’s Job Growth. Howver, he cautened that we don’t know the full extent of the Immigration Slowdown. or blog post From Kolko Showed that the breakwate rate in Early 2024 was much higher.

Other estimates for that breakven rate are higher. A Morgan Stanley Note in Early September Said 70,000 Jobs Added A Mont by the End of the Year is probably consistent with flat umployment. That Wold Mean Recent Growth is too Low.

On the Other End of the Spectrum, David Kelly, The Chief Global Strategist at JPMORGAN ASSET Management, Told Business Insider The Payroll Growth Needed to Unelpoyment Constant Could Be Around.

“You’ve got Very Weak Growth at this Stage in the Economy Because We’ve Got Really No Increase in the Number of People Avilaable to Work,” Kelly Said.

US-Born UNEMPLOYEENT HAS INCREASED

Immigration Changes don’t necessarily Mean a Better Job Market for Non-Immigrant Job Seekers. The native-Born UNEmployment Rate has ticked up from January of Rate.

“Some People Expective that A Slowdown in Immigration Wold Open Up Jobs for Native-Born Workers,” Kolko Said.

People are Having a hard time getting a jab Becuses companies aren’t so eager to hire or lay People off as they Economic uncetainty. “Sending Immigrant Workers Away is not Going to Insulates from the Labor Market Impact of Tariffs or A Recession,” Said Chris Martin, The Lead Researcher at Company-Review and Job-Search Platform Glassdoor.

Pay is one reason deantonio thinks immigration changes Wauld take a while to see a positivity effect on non-immigrant nonb seekers. He Said that “non-immigrant labor is not a perfect substitute for immigrant labor Because the types of Jobs and Occupations filled by immigrant labor are Lower paying, on average, and many non-immigrants are unlikly to thread positations unless.”

The recent h-1b Changes Could Mean Employers look to offshore work or check out Other Visas. “We will Likely Push to Get Employees O-1 Visas Instead Now,” One Startup Founder Told Business Insider. A 2023 pepper From Britta Glennon, an Assistant Professor of Management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Found that US Multinational Companies that Encounter H-1b Visa Ramp Up Hiring in Other Countries, Especialy in China, India, and Canada.

Glennon Told Business Insider that multinational companies are probably going to ramp up offshore strategies unless they really need talent in the us.

“If they’re’re intensifying the offshoring, that more Jobs and Investment Going Abroad, Rather than the US,” Glennon Told Business Insider, Adding that Such a Development Waled Counter to the Policy Changes to Visa Like H-1b. She added that not all employers, including startups and universities, have the resources or option to offshore.

The Construction Sector is Having a Hard Time

Some sectors that rely more on immigration are not Growing Much. Construction Employment has plateaned, for instance.

“Immigration Police Are Definitely Impacting Labor Supply by Both Pushing Out Immigrant Workers and Slowing Applications to Work in the US,” Said Martin. “It”s’ Too Early to Know Just How Many, but we are like Likely Talking Horses of Thousands Fewer Workers.”

Kolko Said in a recent analysis that Employment grown has been flat in Construction, Home Healthcare, and Other industries that are more reliant on unautorized-immigrant labo, with a three-month increes of just 0.06% in august. Private Sectors Together Had an Increase of 0.34%, which is Coleur than the 2.2% at the start of the year, as the job market has software.

Tim paradis controlled to this story.