How long will the US government be closed? .. "Morgan Stanley" reply

The pricing of the Treasury options indicates that the closure of the government in the United States, which began on October 1, will last between 10 and 29 days, according to the strategies for interest rates in “Morgan Stanley”. Capital Futures Options “a risk allowance in the dates on which important economic data is issued” according to the streets led by Sean Zo in a report. The delay in the release of economic data This data contains the monthly recruitment report, which is one of the most important US economic indicators. Due to the closure, the work data was not published in September, which would be released in Washington on Friday morning. It also contains consumer price index for September, scheduled for October 15. Although the dates for issuing the deferred economic data were not yet known, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote: “Options markets will confirm the risk allowance at various future dates based on the distribution of possibilities.” The closure of the America government .. Investment opportunities amid federal paralysis. The analysis was based on the prices of the mutual option contract for one day “1-day straddle”, which is a structure in option contracts based on the purchase of a call option and a sales option at one implementation price. The level of a draw in these contracts is the amount in the market so that the buyer can make a profit. According to the report, the tie levels are almost five basis points on the days of the release report compared to previous or subsequent days. Including contracts that expired through the “CME Group” in June on Tuesday and Thursday have the possibility of daily end dates. Longer possibilities for the continued closure of the government and accept the publication of the September work report after four working days from the end of the closure, as happened in the last similar case in 2013, the report states that “the market is a much higher possibility that the closure is between 10 and 29 days compared to shorter or longer periods.” The US government closes its doors to the failure of negotiations between Trump and Democrats and is the implicit probability of options to close the duration of 10 and 29 days, 60%. Regarding the closure of the duration between four and nine days, it is not a bit 20%, while the possibility of continuing the closure is 30 days or longer, according to the “Morgan Stanley” accounts. The report added that the Polymarket betting platform agrees that the closest closure is between 10 and 29 days, but that it is a greater possibility for a longer closing period.