Prepare for a year full of fluctuations in coffee, oil and other goods

Before it’s too late, ask your coffee -spresso. It will be more expensive in 2025, and anyone who watches energy and commodity markets in the new year will need caffeine to continue its activity. First, let’s be honest: In 2025 it looks very mysterious. The balance of demand and supply for the most important merchandise that swings between a large surplus and a large deficit; It is based on unexpected policies. My ability to predict what Donald Trump, Shi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu may do, and others are no better than others. The expectation of commodity prices in the new year depends more than ever on reading political options. However, we can expect some important axes, and a number of details associated with the goods I will follow during the new year: 1) “OPEC+” faces major challenges that the “OPEC+” alliance overcomes the challenges, and after postponing the increase in production for a six -month period, it seems unlikely that the coalition will be able to increase the production in 2025. The growth of global oil demand in the new year is expected to reach about one million barrels a day, which is less than the expected production growth of non -member states in “OPEC+”. This pressure is caused by a few years of high oil prices, which encouraged OPEC+competitors to invest in new production capabilities. Trump can change the comparison if he is strictly applying for the current US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports. For almost four years, the Biden Administration has focused on the high oil export of both countries. If the new US president decides to tighten the screws on Tehran and Karacas, Saudi Arabia could benefit from increasing production. Unlike that, there is no wonderful space to add new amounts of Saudi oil. But Trump can also cause obstacles to ‘OPEC+’ by two policies. The first is his threat of starting a commercial war, not only with Canada and Mexico, but also with the European Union and China, which can hinder economic growth. The second is to reduce the regulations that regulate US excavation. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that his most important priority is to lower energy prices and increase oil and gas production in the United States. Given that, OPEC+is likely to face challenges. However, in the light of Brent Ru circulation near $ 70 a barrel, oil no longer represents easy betting as it was when the price approaches $ 100 a barrel. 2) British “BB” is a dilemma like “OPEC+”, the British oil company “BP” (BP) suffers from challenges. This had a disaster in the stock market, as the market value has fallen by more than 20% over the past five years. At current prices, market value amounted to approximately $ 75 billion, which is a small part of the $ 250 billion dollars that it achieved about two decades ago. The company is on a decisive date with its shareholders next February; Where it is scheduled to give a strategic update. This update may give some investors a reason to stay with the business, but it will highlight two negative points: First, BP is expected to issue a warning about profits. The company has previously ordered the market to expect profits before interest, tax and destruction of up to $ 49 billion in 2025. But the real number could be at least $ 10 billion. Secondly, it is possible that the rate of shares from $ 1.75 billion in each quarter to approximately one billion will fall to protect the company’s general budget. In the oil industry, credit ratings mainly come to the interests of the shareholders. However, low profits and limited stocks can reduce the appetite of investors to stocks, making way for a possible integration agreement. I have previously argued that the company should try to integrate with a participant, and I see that this is a great possibility in 2025. The most obvious participant is Shell PLC. 3) Follow -Up “OPEC+” and “BP” requires a constant offer of coffee, preparing for high coffee prices. Brazil and Vietnam have a shortage of crops, which are the two largest international products for coffee types “Arabica” and “Robosta”. This is the fifth consecutive season, in which coffee consumption exceeds production, which is unprecedented. At the end of 2024, the price of “Arabica” rose to the highest level ever, bypassing the nominal peak recorded in 1977, but this increase is not sufficient to maintain the balance of the market. Coffee dealers believe that if the Brazil crop does not recover, which is unlikely, the prices of about 350 cents can rise for a pound currently between 400 and 500 cents per pound. As a result, coffee braai panel will increase retail prices, especially for espresso made from “Arabica” pills. While preparing to face high coffee prices for a long time, add your hot chocolate to your drink menu. Crops in West Africa, which represents 70% of global cocoa production, did not expect as before, and prices are recorded. 4) Coal: A neglected, but vitality of coal is one of the commodities that receive less attention, despite its great importance in the global energy system and combating climate change. Many consider it a ‘terminated’ or ‘dying’ commodity for years. At the Climate Change Conference (COP26), held in Glasgow in 2021, countries agreed to ‘get rid of coal’. But reality is different, because it still exists, strong and present everywhere. I am pessimistic because China has adopted coal as a basic pillar of its energy system, using renewable energy sources as a supplementary factor. This Asian state alone consumes an extra charcoal by 30% compared to the rest of the world, threatening any progress to stop the global warming. 5) Iron: A raw material that is not on coal regularly. Iron is one of the raw materials that often neglects, as it is not considered a basic pillar to invest in the markets of financial commodities. However, it is a significant factor for the profitability of global mining groups and steel industry companies, and this is an important indication of economic activity in China. Iron ore prices dropped to $ 100 per metric tonnes after exceeding $ 2021. The new year can be a turning point for this commodity, as it is believed that the production of steel in China can reach between 2022 and 2024, and at best, it can maintain a high and stable level in 2025. As China produces more than half of the global steel production, which is currently affecting the market. Most importantly, iron ore supply will also increase next year, including a new low -cost production source, which is in West Africa Guinea. When combining these two workers, the Iron Ore Market can enter at the beginning of a few years of surplus. The prices are expected to fall in 2025.