ICC issues warrant against Putin! Hungary may arrest before the meeting, know what is the matter?

After talks failed in Alaska, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, chose Hungary as their next stop to discuss a possible end to the Ukraine conflict. However, the choice of venue for this meeting between the two leaders became a subject of discussion. Theoretically, Putin should be arrested as soon as he arrives in Hungary because the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against him, accusing him of war crimes. However, the chance of this happening is slim. Before that, the Kremlin will have to find a way to bring Putin to Budapest while overcoming a number of practical and legal obstacles, as well as sanctions imposed by the European Union (EU). Why the fuss over Putin’s visit to Hungary? At the center of the issue is a warrant issued by the ICC in 2023 that ordered Putin’s arrest for alleged war crimes and the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children during the war. However, the ICC has no powers of arrest as it has no police force or agency. The enforcement of the ICC arrest warrants depends largely on the cooperation of its member states. Based on this, Hungary and its neighboring countries, including Serbia and Romania, are technically obliged to arrest the Russian president if his plane enters their airspace, as these countries are members of the ICC. Germany has already urged Hungary to arrest Putin. However, seeing Putin handcuffed and behind bars is still a distant dream. Hungary is a signatory to the 1998 Rome Statute, which established the ICC. But Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently decided to withdraw from the ICC. Hungary’s withdrawal proceedings began in April, but the entire process took a year to be implemented. So, technically, Hungary can still arrest Putin. Will Hungary Arrest Putin? This is highly unlikely, as Viktor Orbán is not only a longtime ally of Donald Trump, but also has close ties to Russia. Hungary assured Putin of his safety, citing the April visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, another leader wanted for war crimes. Over the past few days, Orbán has spoken with both Trump and Putin, laying the groundwork for this high-profile meeting. Indeed, Orbán claimed that Budapest “is the only place in Europe where such a meeting can take place.” For Orbán, whose party has been in power for 15 years, the summit offers an opportunity to distract from domestic pressures caused by high food prices and a deteriorating economy. History has shown that only a few leaders have surrendered before the ICC, including former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and former Liberian President Charles Taylor. Risks for Putin If Putin agrees to travel to Hungary to meet Trump, it will be his first visit to an EU country since the war began nearly four years ago. However, it is risky for them to go to Budapest. The Kremlin also remained silent, saying many questions still needed to be resolved before the Hungary meeting. Putin has limited his international travels since the ICC arrest warrant. It was easy for Putin to go to Alaska to meet Trump in August this year because the Russian leader did not have to use the airspace of any enemy country. However, the direct route to Budapest goes through the airspace of enemy countries. Due to EU sanctions on Moscow, Russian planes are prohibited from landing and flying in the airspace of EU member states, including Hungary. However, EU member states have always maintained exceptions. The question is, will the EU countries, which stand strongly with Ukraine, agree to the arrest of the leader (Vladimir Putin) who is trying to isolate and attack them on every global platform? On the other hand, this would not be a bad sign, as it could be seen as an obstacle to peace in Ukraine. This undoubtedly creates a dilemma for the EU. What route could Putin take to reach Hungary? Now let’s get to the question of what route Putin might take to reach Budapest. The shortest route from Moscow to Budapest, which takes about three hours, is also the most dangerous as it passes through Belarus and western Ukraine. Flying over Ukrainian airspace is strictly prohibited, as it is an active war zone. The use of this airspace would be unsafe for Putin, as the possibility of an attack on him cannot be ruled out. Another possibility is that Putin travels through Slovakia before reaching Hungary, a five-hour route via Belarus and Poland. Although Belarus has cordial relations with Russia, Poland can be a thorn in its side. Poland, which has historically had tense relations with Russia, is a member of NATO and a supporter of the ICC. Recently, after the intrusion of a Russian drone into Polish airspace, Warsaw warned Moscow not to complain if its plane was shot down in NATO territory. Slough, a major buyer of Russian energy The incident is unlikely to cause any problems for Putin. The third and most practical option is an 8-hour route through Turkey, which was favorable to both Russia and the West. Then fly over Greece, cross the Mediterranean Sea and the Adriatic Sea and reach Hungary. Putin will then have to move north through ICC and NATO ally Montenegro, then cross into Serbia. Despite Western pressure, Serbia remains one of Russia’s few allies in Europe. In fact, Netanyahu took a similar route last month during his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), avoiding several European countries. So the US will have to plan strategically and motivate its NATO allies to ensure a smooth path for Putin.