Trump's bombs on Iran blow the oil market for a rise in prices

The oil market was oversaw on the following days of President Donald Trump’s move over deteriorating conflict in the Middle East. Now that American aircraft have hit three major nuclear sites in Iran, market traders are preparing for a rise in prices as they continue to predict the extent of the crisis. In a week there were serious fluctuations, the future contracts of Brent -Ru jumped 11% since Israel attacked Iran, but the movements were sharply up and down day to day. The prices are expected to resume on Monday after the US attack – which led the locations in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan Al -Nawawi – to a significant increase in fear in an area responsible for about a third of the global oil production. The fluctuations of this week, from the markets of the feverish options, are expected to increase to rising shipping and diesel prices, to a radical change in the curve of the crude futures curve of great importance. $ 100 a barrel? “A lot depends on Iran’s reaction during the coming hours and days, but it can put oil on the road to register $ 100 (for the barrel) if Iran’s response matches his previous threats,” said Soul Cavunic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee. He added that “the US attack could expand the extent of the conflict, including Iran’s target of US interests in the region, including the oil infrastructure in the wave in areas such as Iraq, or the movement of ships in the street of hormuz.” The sea street at the entrance to the Arab Gulf is an important gait, not only for Iranian shipping, but also for the export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other member states of the OPEC organization. But the most important engine in all this is the final goal of the Trump administration in Iran, after the United States joined the Israeli attack on a country in the world in the amount of oil reserves. The market needs certainty over the past week, US intervention was no longer a matter of time. But that changed late Thursday night when Trump said he would think about his decision to give the two -week deadline (to reach a diplomatic solution before the intervention militarily). He then returned to announce the bombing on “Fordo”, “Natanz” and “Isfahan” sites in the early hours of Sunday morning, Iran Time, Iran Time, and pointed to the drop “bombs” on “Fordo”, one of the most important areas of uranium enrichment. “The market wants certainty, and this development is strongly thrown into the United States in the Middle East conflict,” according to Joe Delara, a former trader and international energy strategy analyst in Rabobank. “Prices are expected to rise now if they resume in the oil market.” “But I think the US Navy will be assigned to ensure that the street of hormuz remains open,” Delura added and appreciated that “prices could rise to $ 80 to $ 90 a barrel.” It should be noted that there are no indications that oil flow is affected by the region. “If the United States provides direct military support to Israel and has played its role in overthrowing the current system, the initial response to the market will be a sharp increase in prices,” according to Tamas Fragha, an analyst at the BVM Associats, the mediation analyst. However, his business expects oil not to become part of the conflict because it is not in the interests of any side. The fate of oil is important because it moves fuel and inflation, something Trump undertook to address during his campaign. In times of severe fluctuations, a lack of oil supplies can also accelerate the recession. There is no decrease in flow across the street of hormuz yet, no concrete recession of supplies across the street of hormuz, thereby going through the world about one fifth of the produced and starting oils daily. On the contrary, Iran seems to be in a hurry to increase its exports as part of its logistical response to the conflict. Avoid expanding the war and prevention of supplies to fall oil prices, which will also reduce the prices of all goods that have risen with the effect of the rise of oil. On the other hand, America’s accession may be crucial by asking questions about the safety of the waterway and the region as a whole. Iran announced on Friday that it could study adjustments to its uranium enrichment program, which led to a decrease in futures, which warns the world that Tehran’s procedures are also important for oil markets. Among the assets influenced by tension, the options contracts are, as traders have printed large grants to hedge more prices. In some cases since the beginning of the conflict, traders have paid the highest price since 2013 to hedge the high prices. Since the attacks began, standard amounts of buying options have been traded to climb. Exit offers, but the market saw an unrest even before Trump’s announcement. Traders liquidate their term positions with one of the fastest rates ever, an indication of the pressure that high levels of volatility on derivative records, as well as the unexpected future path. In total, futures in the most important stock exchanges by 367 million barrels, or about 7%, have fallen since the June 12 session closed on the eve of the Israeli attack. Traders and brokers believe the high levels of volatility have made the price of transactions more difficult over the past week. “Merchants and analysts are expected to be expected to see current oil prices in the context of the mitigating speculation risk.” He added: “During the coming period, market fluctuations and open centers will be one of the most important issues to be followed.” A jump in ship prices has the cost of renting a ship to transport crude oil from the Middle East to China by about 90%, compared to the level before the Israeli attacks. The profits of the fuel carrying fuel, such as fuel and aircraft fuel, have also been increased, in addition to the rise of insurance allowance. The danger to ships arose in the waters of the area when two oil tankers collided, causing an explosion and fire, although the company that owned the ship denied that the accident had any connection with the conflict. However, GPS signals are exposed to about a thousand ships a day, which exacerbates security risks. The Mica Center, a French coordination party between the army and the commercial consignment, said the confusion was probably the reason for the ‘exacerbation of the risk’ of the two carriers. The center added in an update: “The coming days will be decisive to determine the possibility of a diplomatic solution with Iran, and whether the United States can turn to military action.” He continued: “Maritime trade is not currently being targeted, but the situation can change suddenly.” The risks facing oil flow from the region, as well as the sharp rise in delivery costs, increase the demand for crude oil from outside the Arab Gulf. The possibility of lowering prices higher, the higher the chances of falling as indicators reduce the escalation. Even if the tension remains high, a few years ago there is a precedent, during which a quick solution to the problem of a large offer was achieved. When the 2019 attack on the processing and refinement of facilities in “Abqaiq” in Saudi Arabia stopped 7% of global supplies, it only lasted a few weeks until the prices of future oil contracts fell from their levels before the attacks were resumed and the supplies were resumed and quickly reimbursed. This is one of the reasons why traders refer to that prices are not greater over the past few days, and that the constant threat of geopolitical risks often does not become a real restriction on supplies. “This is the biggest factor,” says John Koldov, a “Again Capital” partner, noting that a $ 8 risk allowance is acceptable. He added: “The regular bonus in such circumstances can be higher, and its scope of rise will depend on Iran’s reaction, or the actual possibilities of a meaningful response that may not happen.”