Türkiye on a hot plate ... a judicial verdict that can light the markets and shake the opposition

The political confrontation in Türkiye can reach its peak when the judiciary issues a decision that threatens the existence of the most important opposition party, and thus the future of democracy in a country with a population of 85 million. This issue is part of an unprecedented and wide campaign that targets opposition politicians in Türkiye, and they say it is driven by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s attempt to stretch for over 20 years. The increasing political tension and mass protests, including tens of thousands of Sunday, led to the tensions of the markets. Turkish stocks dropped by more than 8% this month at the dollar value, in the worst performance in the world after Argentina. The effects denominated in the lubrication of the government also decreased. This decrease can deepen as the judiciary, which Erdogan and the Party for Justice and Development decide to move independently, to destroy a 2023 vote that has chosen the leadership of the “CHP”. Read more: A tension between Türkiye’s investors before the opposition leadership, the issue in Ankara, is one of the many cases against the ‘People’s Republican Party’ and the most important members, complicated. The session began local time before ten in the morning (and the judge issued an order to postpone the case until the October 24 session), and the Bist-100 (Bist-100) index opened its trade by 0.14%, while the lira did not see that a change at 41.38 was mentioned against the US dollar. There are various possible results, and the next is the most prominent and likely effect. Scenario 1: The court rules the invalidity of the results of the Republican People’s Party Conference for 2023 and to re -appoint the former leader is one of the most likely and most likely scenarios for foreign investors. Protests can be set on fire in Istanbul and other cities, according to which the leader of the ‘Republican People’s Party’, Ozgor Ozal, the ally of Istanbul’s captive Mayor, Akram Imamoglu, will have to delay his position. The return of Kamal Klogadaroglu, which led the party for 13 years without achieving a major election victory to the vote of 2023, can be hidden in the efforts to release Imamoglu. This will be a major setback for a party that has achieved major profits in the municipal election over the past year, showing that voters have begun to abandon the justice and development party in most parts of the country. Kamal Klogadaroglu can be postponed to hold a new party conference months or even years, and use the time to improve its control over power. Eric Merson, main strategy of emerging markets at the Swedish Seb Bank (BEE), said: “The real danger of these developments is more erosion in Turkish political institutions.” Also read: All you want to know about the municipal election in Türkiye and the ‘Istanbul struggle’ In the event of such a decision, the lira can be under pressure if the Turks rush to buy dollars. Erdogan can also benefit from the fragmentation of the ‘Republican People’s Party’ by asking for early elections and perhaps increase spending before voting, according to Gordon Powers, a Columbia threadneed Investments, which amounts to $ 650 billion. This, in turn, will keep the plans of the central bank to reduce inflation to less than 30% in the coming months. Scenario 2: The Court will annul the conference results and appoint a trustee in this scenario. The court will annul the results of the conference ‘People’s Republican Party’ held in 2023, but it will appoint a ceasefire for the temporary supervision of the party. This Guardian will have to organize a vote to choose the leadership within 45 days, allowing Uzogor to remove the opportunity for re -election. Although the party is facing a temporary unrest, analysts believe that the impact of this scenario on the market will be less serious compared to the re -clevedaroglu to the leadership. Scenario 3: The matter will postpone this scenario some satisfaction with the ‘Republican People’s Party’ and the markets, but this satisfaction may not last long as investors are short -term, such as traders in interest, they will still be attracted to interest rates that are nearly 40% on turkish lira. However, a continuous political uncertainty can be praised by a number of investors to pump more money into the $ 1.4 trillion economy. Screen 4: It is probably not that the issue is likely to drop the issue, as the refusal of the issue will indicate the pressure on the ‘Republican People’s Party’, and it will probably launch a wave of rise in the markets. Ozgor can take this result to increase the pressure on Erdogan to ask for early elections. You may be interested in: Great projects in Istanbul have stumbled with the ongoing political turmoil and the upcoming election is not expected before the year 2028, and although Erdogan is prohibited to run for another term, he can run again as early elections. Ozal said in a recent interview with “Bloomberg” that he wants to go to the polls at the end of 2025 or early next year. * The fourth paragraph was updated by the decision to postpone the case