The markets appear at their best on the top levels, and this is increasingly true of gold with an approaching price of $ 3 thousand per ounce. The precious metal shows a behavior similar to the ‘FLIN’ commodity, a group of commodities whose attractiveness increases with the high prices, as opposed to traditional economic laws. But can this momentum continue? One of the indications that the market has entered a stage of speculation obsession is the spread of theories that look logical on their face, but it does not have a strong basis. There are currently two of these theories distributed by the financial circles. The first is related to the speculation that the Trump administration can re -evaluate its gold reserves, currently registered in its books, at $ 42 per gram to meet the current immediate price. This magical amendment will contribute about $ 800 billion in the US budget. The net result of this step is to sell the need for more debt, which is positive for treasury and dollar bonds. But it is unclear how it can support gold prices. As far as the second theory is concerned, it is related to allowing ten Chinese insurance companies this month to invest 1% of its budgets in material gold, which could reach the 27 billion dollars equivalent. Although this step is expected in the gold circles for months, it does not necessarily mean that it is not necessarily a purchase permit, with full power at record levels. The Chinese central bank is usually called the largest gold buyer over the past few years. After a stop that lasted a few months, the bank added 15 meters for the past two months last year. But it is noteworthy that the price bonus of gold distributed in Shanghai usually rises with the weak Yuan, which did not happen this year. This indicates that the Chinese question is not the most important driver of current heights. So what does prices drive to rise? Read more: Gold prices stick to the rise and Trump decisions increase the request. The diversification of investment portfolios in gold. Vanda Research indicates that investment institutions in the United States give their governor to hedge the effects of the risk of customs duties that Trump can impose. It also indicates that most price gain was achieved this year during US trading hours, and not during Asian trading sessions. The momentum investment funds paid prices to record successive levels. But this kind of financial flow can fall quickly if the market does not maintain its upward rate. The complexities of the delivery of gold for the “Comex” futures in New York, the pressure crisis on the open centers. Everyone realizes that gold does not achieve returns, and it costs large amounts of money, but to transfer it from warehouses in London, Toronto or Zurich to New York, add a new level of cost. The major differences in the markets between markets (the chances of argument) rarely continue for a long time. However, the currently in circulation indicators listed in the United States began to get flow, after it was barely attention last year during the rise of gold. Read more: A race to transfer gold from London to New York. Trump puts the customs duties on the precious? It seems that the traditional base of gold is currently coming to a standstill, except for one base, namely that gold, described as ‘Pet Rock’, remains the classic hedging against inflation. Currently, the focus is much on the inflationary effects of customs duties, although it is still closer to a political struggle on influence than a tangible economic reality. Nevertheless, the basic consumer expenditure index, a sign of the ‘Federal Reserve’, has remained less than 3% over the past year. Similarly, inflation lectures are still five years close to 2.5%. Yes, these rates exceed the purpose of the ‘Federal Reserve’ of 2%, but Jerome Powell looks comfortable with this situation, with a clear tendency to facilitate monetary policy. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that all possible US customs and retaliation reactions will not add more than 0.4% to US consumer prices. This may explain part of the power of gold, but it does not justify the increase by 45% over the past year. An inverted relationship between gold and the dollar. Trump focuses on maintaining the position of the dollar as a global backup currency and not promoting a participant. Gold usually has a counter -ratio with the dollar, and the high yields of US treasury effects are the ‘weakness’ of gold. Any fall in the loan levels of the US government will reduce the fear of the high price of gold. Nor is it expected that economic or threatening cash shocks are on the horizon. On the contrary, the geopolitical environment seems to be calm. Certainly stock markets are not anxious about the risk of customs duties. On the contrary, the German “DAX” index is the best achievement this year, although it may be a possible goal of Trump’s anger. Givingkal research indicates that all the streams of the current rise of gold are clear and known, while the factors that can push it to landing have not yet been specified. The conclusion of peace agreements in Ukraine or the Middle East can undermine the bullish momentum of gold. It is also noteworthy that the usual guiders of these yellow metal, such as material gold mines or other precious metals such as silver, do not have the same impulse. Gold can be feverish at the moment, just as it is necessary to form a break, but failure to exceed $ 3,000 or long -term of $ 3,000, can lead to the spread of some of the enthusiasm around it.
Marcus Assyreh: The obsession with the rise in the price of gold threatens the removal of its glamor
