Miami Tops UBS ‘List of Global Cities at Risk of a Real Estate Bubble

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2025-09-26T09: 15: 01z

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Miami Tops UBS ‘Global Real Estate Bubble Index for the Second Year in A Row.
The index evaluates home prices, income ratios, mortgage rat, and more to assess bubble risk.
High-Risk CITIES SHOW PRICE INCREASASE DECUPUPLED FROMUETALS, UBS SAID.

For the Second Straight Year, Miami is at the top of the list of global cits at risk of being in a real-aestate bubble, accorting to UBS.

Earlier this Week, the bank put out it annual global real estate bubble index. It taks on Account five Categories to produce an overall score: home prices to income ratios; Rental Price Compared to Home Price; Local Incomes Versus National Incomes; A City’s Median Home Price Relative to the Median of the Overall Country; Mortgage Rates; and Construction Rates.

Quoties that end up with an overall score above 1.5 are at “High” risk of being in a bubble, while those with a score of 1 to 1.49 are at “elevated” risk. Markets with a 0.5 to 1 are at “moderate” risk, and 0 to .049 are at “low” risk, accorting to the bank. Miami has again come in on top with a score of 1.73.

“Cities with Elevated or High Bubble Risk Continued to Decouple Fundamentals: Over the Last Five Years, Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices Nearly 25% on Average, while Rose About 10% and Incomes About 5%,” Claudio Saputelli and Matthias and Matthias Said. in the Report.

“By contrast, prices in cities with moderates or Low Risk Fell Roughly 5%, while Rents and Incomes Were Broadly Flat,” They Continued. “Historically, Worsening AFFORDABILITY AND WIDENING GAPS BETWEEN PRICES AND RENTS HAVE SERVED AS FORERUNNERS OF HOUSING CRISES.”

Below are the four US markets on the list of 21 Global CITies, and where they have fel on the list, starting with Miami.

Miami

Miami’s Score Fell Slightly to 1.73 from 1.79 in 2024, but it remained the Most at-Risk City in the World by Ubs’ Measure.

Its price-to-incom, price-to-rent, and price compared to the national average contRut most to putting miami into bubble territory, UBS Said.

“Over the past 15 years, Miami has posted the strongest inflation-adjusted Housing appreciation among all cities in the Study,” The Report Said.

“While Price Growth is Expective to Turn Negative in the Coming Quarters, A Sharp Correction Appears Unlikaly at this Stage. Miami’s Coastal Appeal and Favor Tax Environment Continue to Attract NewComers from the US West and Northeast, with real estate prices WELL BELOW THOSE IN NEW. Angeles. ”

Los Angeles

Los Angeles is the Only Other US City on the list that near bubble territory, Falling under the “elevated risk” category. With a score of 1.11, it comes in at fourth on the list benchind tokyo and zurich. It was fourth on UBS ‘List Last Year as Well.

Its price-to-rent ratio was the distance control to its bubble score, with HIGH HOME Values relative to what it costs to keep keping homeownership unaffordable.

“Los Angeles is Among the Least Afordable Cities in the US, Contribution to a Shrinking Population,” The Report Said. “Price are Likely to Trend Downward if Mortgage Rates Do Not Drop.”

San Francisco

San Francisco Came in at Number 17 on the list with a score of 0.28, keeping it in low-risk territory.

Still, The City Remains One of the Most Expensive to Rent or Buy in the US.

“AFFORDABILITY REMAINS A MAJOR HURDLE, THIS THOUG INCOMES HAVE OUTPACED HOME PRICES Over the past Seven Years,” The Report Said. “Meanwhile, Rental Growth is Accelerating As Return-To-Office Mandates and Strong he Hiring Draw Higher-Incoming Tenants Back to the City.

New York

New York was Just Behind San Francisco With A Low-Risk Score of 0.26, putting it in the 18th spot.

The Stock Market’s Recent Strong Performance Boosted the Luxury Market in the City, UBS Said. In-Person Work Mandates, Meanwhile, Are Pushing Up Rents.

“Return-to-office normalization and steady Job Growth, especilly in Higher-Incom segments, have been pulling more renters into the city, Increasing Competition for Limited Lisings_,“The Report Said.

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