Trump tariffs: Predictions show the initial false effect of the ongoing trade war. Here's what economists say | Mint

(Bloomberg) – Three weeks after US President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the whole world, new economic forecasts and surveys will indicate the initial fallout. A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund will reduce its prospects for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday. The next day, the purchase manager indices from Japan to Europe to the US will offer the first coordinated look at manufacturing and services activity, as Trump’s world rates – now partly suspended – were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys of major economies are also on the calendar. The combined picture offers finance and central bankers compiled in Washington a chance to do initial damage -assessments about Trump’s attempt to rewad the global trading system. “Our new growth projections will include significant marks, but not a recession,” Crystalina Georgieva, MD of IMF, said on Thursday. “We will also see remarks for inflation forecasts for some countries. We will warn that the protracted high uncertainty increases the risk of stress for financial markets.” What Bloomberg economy says: “The IMF’s projections tend to go wrong during potentially disruptive crises. In the four major crises we have studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth has underestimated it by 0.5 percentage points. Either way. —Alex Isakov and Adriana Dupita. Those clouds that envelop the global economy are unlikely to lift a while. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US Central Bank was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before considering changes to monetary policy, while European central bank head Christine Lagarde could not say whether uncertainty had reached a peak. Meanwhile, Georgieva hopes that the coming days, which also contain a meeting of the group of 20 financing heads, could lower the temperature in global trade relations. “We need a more resilient global economy, not a drift after division,” she said. The Washington meetings “provide an important forum for dialogue at an important time.” Elsewhere, the central bank decisions in Russia and Indonesia, an important wage indicator of the euro zone, and the beige book of the Federal Reserve will be one of the highlights. The US and Canada in the US will watch investors for any additional deterioration in the expectations of consumer sentiment and inflation when the University of Michigan issues revised data on Friday. Rates, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been in the mind of the respondents of the survey in recent months. The Fed’s beige book will provide anecdotes from local economic conditions on Wednesday and give a glimpse of how much government policy and uncertainty affect the business decisions. Earlier in the day, the government is expected to report a marginal increase in the new home sales of March. Since mortgage interest rates have largely lost over 6.5% since October, builders are trying to get buyers off the sidelines. Homes residue data will be released on Thursday. A report on March expensive goods orders on the same day will help provide clues to the demand for equipment. Neel Kashkari, Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller and Beth Hammack are one of the Fed officials scheduled to talk. Furthermore, the Canadian election campaign enters its final week, with polls indicating that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s liberals are about five points ahead – which puts them within reach of a majority government amid an volatile trade war with the US. An important architect of Canada’s response to US rates, trade negotiator Steve Verheul, will speak at a conference in Toronto. Retailing data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers traced their spending for the third consecutive month amid trade uncertainty. Asia in Asia begins the week with China reporting the prime rates on Monday; Economists predict a steady outcome. Recent data has shown that growth predictions forecasts. Also on Monday, Indonesia publishes trade data for March, which will give an indication of the health of the country’s external sector before Trump’s rates kicked in, while the Philippines are likely to place another surplus for March. New Zealand publishes trade figures for March, while Taiwan and Hong Kong report the employment data. The next day, the Central Bank of Indonesia is likely to hold rates for a third direct meeting in an effort to support the Rupiah-one of Asia’s worst performing currencies. On the same day, the preliminary April PMI data for Australia, Japan and India will give an early look at any impact on the manufacturing and services sectors from the US guided trade war. Malaysia and Singapore publish inflation lectures on Wednesday, with South Korean consumer confidence, also a day before the country releases pre-estimates for the gross domestic product in the first quarter. Meanwhile, South Korea’s top trading official-Ahn Duk-Geun-Wednesday will leave for Washington after his third American journey since Trump’s inauguration, with the aim of starting to negotiate, as his country tries to persuade one of the first to facilitate or eliminate the rates on his consignments. Japan has already started such talks and is now reviewing its car safety standards to obtain an agreement, Japanese Business Daily Nikkei reported on Sunday. On Friday, Japan unveiled the CPI of Tokyo as well as department store sales, while Singapore will see private house prices for the first quarter and industrial production for March. During the week, India and Thailand also report foreign exchange reserves. Europe, Middle East, Africa with a holiday on Monday in most of Europe and central bankers who meet for the IMF meetings will be most attention. Many policymakers appear on the calendar, including a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England Wednesday. The main focus in the eurozone is surveys. Consumer confidence in the region will be released on Tuesday, and the ECB publishes its recording of professional predictors on the same day. The wage tracker owed on Wednesday shows the slower growth in the wage, Lagarde said last week after lowering the rates. Investors may also pay the most attention to the PMIs, and offer the first look at activity in manufacturing and services, as the US rates were strengthened at the beginning of April. Germany’s accurate IFO recording on business confidence comes Thursday, which shows how sentiment responded to companies to trade tensions and, to a more positive note, on the agreement on a federal coalition government. Similar indices in France will be released on Friday. The UK’s PMI reports also occur on Wednesday, just like the latest public financing numbers for March. Retail sales will be published on Friday. The Swiss National Bank releases earnings in the first quarter on Thursday, and President Martin Schlegel addresses his annual general meeting the next day. Eventually, the Central Bank of Russia will announce its latest financial decision on Friday. A recent reduction in the pressure of consumer prices is probably not enough to convince policy makers to lower the measure of a record of 21%. However, officials may sound a dovish note for a possible rate cut later this year. Latin America has secured a $ 20 billion agreement with the IMF, which includes a $ 12 billion prepayment, Argentina Tuesday reported the GDP Proxy data in February. After contracting a second year in 2024, the no. 2 Economics of South America a V-shaped recovery and is expected to lead growth among the major economies of the region this year, and the next Colombia will deliver the economic activity data to GDP Proxy report, which caused some analysts to mark their 2025 growth forecasts. The Central Bank of Paraguay can be moved to tighten the current 6% with inflation in four months with 100 bps, up to 4.4%. Brazil farm inflation data in April on Friday, and if March is any guide, the headprint must push further above the top of the central bank’s target range. Mexico offers both the economic activity in February and mid -month consumer price reports. January’s negative GDP-Proxy print puts Mexico’s economy on track for a second quarterly contraction complaining to the definition of a technical recession. Inflation could be close to the previous reading of 3.93%, just below the top of the central bank’s inflation target ceiling. Banco de Mexico, or Banxico, meets next to consider the benchmark-now at 9%in the mid-May. -With help from Vince Golle, Robert Jameson, Laura Dhillon Kane, Simon Lee, Swati Pandey and Paul Richardson. (Updates with South Korea, Japan Trading Attempts in Asia Division) More stories like these are available on Bloomberg.com © 2025 Bloomberg MP