A new decrease in the production of cocoa in West Africa increases prices

Most parts of West Africa, offering the world’s most important cocoa producers, are on their way to a hidden harvest season. Despite improving weather conditions compared to previous seasons, structural problems such as tree aging and crop diseases still limit the amount of production and hold prices high. Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is estimated at 1.4 million tonnes during the most important harvest season lasting from October to March, according to the average estimates of eight traders and analysts who asked the Bloomberg agency their opinions. This number is almost the total expected production of the main season, according to people informed of the numbers. Cocoa supplies are rare. As for the neighboring Ghana, where the harvest season begins this month, expectations look darker as production is expected to reach only 620 thousand tonnes, a level much less than the highlight of the country’s historical production. This crop means that global cocoa supplies will hardly be scarce, even with a decrease in demand, which offers a balance after a deficit of about 40,000 tonnes this year. Also read: Chocolate makers on a warm look at the exacerbation of the global cocoa crisis. The data of the international cocoa organization indicates that the stock rate is consumed, which is an important indicator for measuring the balance between supply and demand balance, and approaches its lowest levels since at least 1981. In the United States, cocoa shares, which are stored in stock exchanges, have dropped to below average ten years. The poor investment falls with the production of cocoa, Oran van Durat, an analyst in Rabobank, said: “I do not expect a major recovery in the production.” He added that after years of poor investment, “It is very likely that the joint production capacity of Ivory Coast and Ghana will decline year after year.” This reality puts the pressure on chocolate manufacturing companies and can keep prices high. Despite the decline in future cocoa bags with about 40% of its historic peaks, which amounted to about $ 13,000 per tonne in December, prices are still much higher than the average of five years. JP Morgan expects prices to remain above $ 6,000 per tonne, while City reaches 7,000 dollars in the next year, increasing more than twice than a long -term medium. Cocoa production improves in Cameroon, Tercy Allen, a strategy at JP Morgan, said: “The market will continue to trade at high levels at a longer period,” she said, “Regardless of the mode and deficit next year, returning to the average levels of five years is not in the short term.” In West Africa, the next three months are very important. After the rainy season that runs from April to June, Cocoa Pods is now entering the maximum growth phase. According to Emma Sany, an analyst in “Marx”, the Rains could help reduce the fears before the dry month of July in June, but if the dry atmosphere continues during August, expectations may deteriorate. Cameroon has emerged as a bright point in the local decline, as cocoa production is expected to rise by 12% to 300 thousand tonnes, according to the Cocoa Council and professional coffee in the country. Ecuador threatens Africa’s dominance of cocoa, but in other places the image is darker. For example, Nigeria’s cocoa production is expected to drop by 11% to 305 thousand tonnes in the 2025-2026 season, a decrease in estimates of 344 thousand tonnes for the current season ending in September. You may also be interested in: The price of cocoa is a candidate for the leap next year after a record increase in 2024, said Mfoto Apollainoa, president of the Cocoa Association in Nigeria, that climate changes have led to the delay in basic rain, while strong winds caused the destruction of fresh flowers and small koka. has reduced the volume. Even if production in the region improves, the beginning of a low base will be after two poor seasons. According to Terry Allen of “JB Morgan”, this situation is threatening West Africa’s dominance of the world market, at a time when countries such as Ecuador continue their production to expand.