Signs of a breakthrough in the Cocooprisis. Will chocolate prices fall?

The global cocoa crisis began to show signs of a breakthrough with the improvement of crops in South America and the decline in demand, which puts the market on a surplus road for the second consecutive year. Analysts and traders, Bloomberg, expect their views that production production will exceed 186 thousand tonnes in the 2025-2026 season, which begins next month, that is, more than twice the surplus of the current season. This improvement helps to reconfigure global stocks drained by poor harvesting seasons in West Africa, one of the most important cocoa production areas. This deficit has paid futures in New York over the past three years to rise more than four times until it reached a record level in December, which has raised the prices of chocolate on consumers. Production in South America has improved, although prices are still at historic levels, it has fallen by about 40% since the beginning of the year with the decline in chocolate consumption and factories asylum to adjust their recipes, while the expected crops improve the possibility of limiting new waves. “Prices are expected to fall in the short and medium term,” Uran van, the role of Rabobank, said last week on the sidelines of the European Cocoa Forum. A significant part of improving supplies to South America is being improved. In Ghana and Ivory Coast, the largest cocoa products in the world, farmers receive a fixed price determined by the government, their direct benefit from the wave of high prices. In most freedom markets, the rise in prices urged farmers to expand the cultivated spaces, and the new trees began to produce their crops. In Ecuador, the third largest producer worldwide, production is expected to rise by 5% to 580 thousand tonnes next season thanks to the improvement of the grain and the addition of new farms, according to Julio Moskoso, the Latam Commodity Traders Trade Manager on the sidelines of the European Cocoa Forum. Also read: Chocolate makers on a hot look at the exacerbation of the global cocoa crisis, Vladimir Zink, which trades in the “Stonex” group, indicated that this increase, together with the growth of production in countries such as Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, can improve South America’s production of up to 100 thousand tons. Cocoa cultivation is still facing challenges in West Africa, which pushes the high prices of cocoa pills on request, as chocolate makers increase their products, increasing the possibilities of the accumulation of surplus. Analysts and traders expect consumption that its slowdown will continue to reduce consumer purchases, and that some factories use to buy fewer quantities or insert alternatives to cocoa to reduce costs. The work activity in Europe, Asia and North America fell during the second quarter, while the next quarterly data can show more decline. However, the production in West African countries, the most important cocoa cultivation areas, has still had trouble returning to the peak levels, due to non -yields and the progress of trees and the spread of crop diseases such as swelling of lumps, which is a basic threat to supplies. The average estimates of five traders expected the production of ivory coast to reach about 1.8 million tonnes, a level that is near the current season. Also read: The troubled cocoa markets that push chocolate makers in Europe to the edge of the abyss and transactions monitor climatic conditions, as the return of rain contributes to the improvement of soil moisture, to one of the worst droughts registered during July and August. “Although rain rates have improved over the past week and the expectations that indicate more heights, the weather in general was not ideal for producing the 2025-2026 season,” Van Durat said. It is likely that the prevailing conditions have caused some expectations over the past two months. ‘