Rural revival: Is it premature to celebrate?

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. The economy, as the Indian economy is estimated to delay to 6.5% in 2024-25, economists have carried on one factor to give good growth: rural India. (Ani) Summary rural consumption rose in 2024, indicating that economic improvement. This expressed the hope of a slowing broader economy. However, an increased demand for MGN Right Employment Opportunities doubts about the strength of this recovery. Mint Investigation: A revival in rural consumption demand in 2024 brought the hope of better economic activity. However, a collection in the demand for rural jobs under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Scheme (MGNRIG) asked questions about the sustainability of rural revival. A forecast of warmer than usual summer and double heat wave days in 2025 complicates the matter further. Since the Indian economy is estimated to delay to 6.5% in 2024-25, economists have carried on one factor to give great growth: rural India. However, rising job demand under the MGN law sends emergency signals. Job demand rose to the highest in seven months in January. Although it was slightly moderated in February and March, it is still more than 20 million, according to the data from the Ministry of Rural Development. Between November and March, more than 124 million people demanded work under the scheme, an increase of 5.4% compared to the previous period. During the same period, the employment provided under the scheme increased by 8% when the government rushed to meet the high demand. “An increasing demand for jobs (under MGN rights) is a sign that the rural economy is not as good as it feels,” said Rajendran Narayanan, associate professor of economics at Azim Premji University. Since the wage rate under the scheme is lower than the market rate, it was a sign of distress that “people were willing to work at such low wages”. Mixed signals After the rural economy had a large part of the post-coding period, the rural economy began to show signs of recovery in 2024, as falling inflation and robust agricultural activity improved the purchasing power. This is reflected in the sales of rapidly moving consumer goods, with the growth of sales in the rural economy rising not only from the previous year, but also exceeded the urban areas. “Improved agricultural production, government schemes and the festive season reinforced rural consumption,” said Roosevelt Dsouza, Customer Success Head (FMCG) in Nielseniq India. Also read: The demand for work under rural work scheme is rising amid the slowdown of economic growth, but a slowdown in the urban economy may also be a factor behind a higher demand for rural work. A delayed in the urban economy leads to a distribution effect with reverse migration, which is migrant laborers returning to rural areas in search of work. ” When migrating laborers find it difficult to maintain themselves in cities, they are forced to find work in the agricultural sector and even under the MGN right. Several other factors also influence the job question under the MGN right. First, the seasonal pattern of people who turn to the scheme when agricultural work is scarce and secondly, a slowdown in private Capeex that leads to laborers choosing a low-wage work under MGN right. Data shows that work demand under MGN rights usually rises between March and June, as it is relatively lean months of agriculture. If the seasonal trends apply, the MGN right can see more work question in the coming months. Also read: Mint Primer | Private consumption returns, increased by rural demand, unexplained prospects in 2024 led to a healthy crop production in the past financial year, with wheat and oilseeds seeing higher production. Robust agricultural activity has translated a 4.6% growth into agriculture, forestry and fishing GVA, almost double the 2.7% growth in the previous year. However, an uncertain prospect for 2025-26 can reversed the progress seen in the previous year. The year 2025 is expected to be one of the hottest years on record, with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting the above maximum maximum temperatures in most parts of the country and above normal number of heatwave days in most parts of East and Central India. This is in line with the forecast for world temperatures. This year’s January and February, the global surface temperatures were 1.33 ° C and 1.26 ° C above the 20th-century average, which made it recorded below, showed data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, an US government agency. Also read: Himanshu: Will the budget’s suggestions help revive the rural economy of India? The rural economy depends on agricultural activity, which employs almost 60% of the rural workforce. According to experts, a warmer than usual January-March period may have affected Rabi crop yields this year. With the agricultural sector vulnerable to climate change, mocks and uneven and low rainfall, its growth has become particularly uncertain in the midst of predicting high temperatures. The good news is that the IMD excluded El Nino this year, which holds the hope of a normal monsoon intact. A continuation of robust agricultural activity will be needed to maintain rural growth. Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #In Maps #wone Factors #Economy #rural Work #rural Growth Mint Special