A response to the formation of the fees reflects the market's view of the dollar

Many discussions have taken place about the chance of the movements of shares and encrypted assets since US President Donald Trump announced the definitions of “Liberation Day” on April 2, when some saw in this synchronization, suggesting that the first wave of definitions poses a threat to high risk assets, while the decision to postpone the economy. Unfortunately, most of the comments dealing with this topic were characterized by partisan prejudice, and were absent from balanced economic analyzes. As we look at the timing of the movements of stocks and encrypted assets, we can come with completely different conclusions, including what is particularly concerned about the US dollar track than those associated with international trade, the stability of global relations or economic recession. The stages of the market interaction with the fees passed the financial markets in three stages of interaction with Trump’s fees: the first phase: it appears in the NA market trade on April 2, and the movements in the next two days, characterized by fear of turmoil in financial markets, trading flow and international relationships, and that stage was bad for stocks, Then this stage continued during the weekend until Trump’s announcement on April 9, when the feelings of investors were turned to the possibility of global recession. Since that transformation, it seems that anxiety is focused on the value of the US dollar. All this had to be handled with caution, as it is dangerous to explain the market movements immediately once it has occurred. It can take to understand what the markets are trying to say months or even years, and we do not reach a clear answer. The markets try to predict the way of cash flow for future decades, at a time when many events testify, and the expectations that move today are usually reached on the ground after a long time. Maybe you also like: How did Trump’s drawings shake the world’s stock exchanges? Is the tremor repeated? There are, of course, exceptions to this, such as clear news related to the changing federal reserves for interest rates, decisive economic statistics or natural disasters. In such cases, we know when the market receives the news, and we can measure the reaction within seconds or minutes, without the noise that comes up for a day or more. But Trump’s customs -duties news does not match these issues, for various reasons, including the complex nature of these fees, which takes time to accommodate and evaluate reactions to it. At the beginning of the announcement of the “Liberation Day” fees, the shares in the first ten minutes of trading responded to a decline with less than 1% after the market was closed, but the “S&B 500” index fell by 10.5% in the next two days. Meanwhile, a currency has climbed. These movements came while the market had the reactions of abroad and the most detailed analyzes of the consequences. In addition, there were important indirect consequences. The aggressive definitions indicated that Trump would accelerate his plans in general and move vigorously – or even recklessly – in its implementation, including reducing costs by the Ministry of Government Efficiency, the alleviation of legislation and the implementation of immigration laws, and it seemed as if this shocking unilateral action could undermine international cooperation and friendly relationships. The recession hurt the formation and arrows during the weekend, and the ‘second phase’ began: It appeared on Monday and Tuesday, and at that point the shares did not move much, but the prices of training fell strongly. Commercial wars, international tensions, protectionism, capital control and all financial repression are factors that drive a formation of Ascension, but global recession can lead to their decline, such as stocks and sometimes more. The fragility of the global economy since the recovery of the kofid’s pandemic has been a very important background for this scene. We are close to inflation recession during the years of former US President Joe Biden, and most economists expected a recession when the Federal Reserve began to increase interest in a sharp pace to combat inflation. During the Trump election period, the possibility of a recession was about 25%, and has since increased. Definition statement has embodied concerns about the markets. Investors have not yet seen a direct cause of stagnation in customs duties, but they have realized that the fragility of the economic situation can make this first sparks to shoot the recession and make it a longer and more horrific crisis than expected. The value of the US dollar since Trump’s partial refuge of the highest fees on dozens of commercial partners is lost, the shares and currencies that are explicitly exposed to more than can only be set out by the news, and here comes the third phase. The US economy has previously been through a stage, and the dollar was the cause of these movements at the time. Each of the encrypted stocks and currencies is denied in the dollar, and as the value of the dollar drops, both rise, and as the value of the dollar increases, both fall. But the value of the dollar here is not measured by the consumer price index or foreign exchange rates, but rather with the feelings of investors to retain the dollar and nominal assets compared to securities such as stocks and encrypted currencies. Customs duties usually reduce the attraction of maintaining financial liquidity compared to non -cash assets. The Americans won’t be able to buy much with their dollars, and mutual definitions mean that foreigners won’t be able to buy much either. Events that impede free markets make financial liquidity less valuable. On the contrary, escaping to safe assets can mean that international tensions and the unrest of the trade make the dollar more valuable, despite its low purchasing power. The United States with major financial capabilities can have the same impact on the value of the dollar. In any case, when Trump withdrew his decisions, the investors and cryptocurrencies seemed to be convinced that the dollar had lost part of its value, which led the shares to it and put together to rise simultaneously, and this pattern later continued. With the ongoing ambiguity, it can become difficult to predict the date of the market entering a new phase of fluctuation, as it is likely that the existing relationship between the movement of shares and the price of formation will change, and the date of this will be predicted that it will take place more than just traditional analysis instruments. Constant chaos because of Trump in the light of this remains the question: What does the future carry for the markets? The chaos of customs duties will take several months, if not during the Trump administration period. Temporary remark has contributed to calming down the situation and reducing the possibilities of recession or major international conflict. If the administration can ensure political stability, the issue can be similar to events related to the ceiling of the debt or closure of government that destabilize markets and politics for a period and then fade into the darkness of forgetfulness, even if basic conflicts are never resolved. The deepest and most important matter is Trump’s aggression and his willingness to listen to the main advisors. The next time is something similar – and I am confident that there is once – I expect the stocks to act faster and negative, while the encrypted currencies benefit. The drama we have seen is related to the economy of customs and diplomatic duties. But the next time investors are seen as another chapter in a long -term play; Why are you concerned about the long -term economic effects of policies that change or even vary daily? The policy, not the economy, can become the most important driving force for fluctuations for financial markets until Trump calms down or leaves his position.