Russia is raining Hellfire on Ukraine | Mint

A year ago, 30 drones to stop Ukraine in a single night were considered extraordinary. Now Russia is saturating the air defense of Ukraine with hundreds of it. On May 25, the Kremlin pumbled the country, with a ‘massive strike’ against Ukrainian cities, with 355 drones, probably a record. Russia also uses more missiles: 69 was fired that night. As a result, Ukraine reigns in the unknown. If the current ceasefire talks fail, which looks very likely, air defense units will have to ration their interceptors. More Russian missiles and drones will come through to discontinue towns, cities and critical industry. Russia’s air war acted at the beginning of the year (see map), with a clear shift in the hardware it uses. Ballistic missiles, many provided by North Korea, are now center stage; Along with a new, more deadly, generation of Shahed attack drones. The ballistic missiles are difficult to stop because of their speed; Only the falling stock of Ukraine of Patriot PAC-3 missiles offers a real chance of intercepting. Meanwhile, the Shaheds, now in their sixth modification since the first of them were sent to Russia by Iran in 2023, has been using machine learning to discontinue well -protected targets such as Kyiv. On May 24, Drones took pieces from buildings in the northern suburbs of the capital. Two weeks earlier, one drone equipped with a fuel air head a hole in a mall just nearby, blowing windows up to 300 m away. The same week, another, filled with delayed action groups, hit a practice series on the southeastern edge of the city. The biggest challenge facing the air defense staff of Ukraine is the mere number now flying to them. Last year, the Kremlin produced about 300 Shahed drones per month; The same number now rolls out in less than three days. Ukrainian military intelligence says it has documents that indicate that Russia intends to increase its drone production to 500 a day, which indicates that attack swings of 1,000 can become a reality. This is probably a piece, warns Kostiantine Kryvolap, a Ukrainian aviation expert. Russia’s arms industry is extinguishing and false reporting, he says. “But it’s clear that the numbers will increase significantly.” Even if Ukraine manages to stabilize the front lines in the east, the problems of protecting the air will only grow. In a skunkworks in a hidden corner of Kyiv, an rag day group of engineers pulls the inside of a Russian-made Shahed-Drone apart. Each piece of metal falling on the Ukrainian cities ends up in laboratories like this for a complete post -mortem death. The goal is to document the weapons’ tricks; To re -design everything that works, and send a version of it back where it came. There has been no stir in the past month. Despite the hope of a ceasefire, Russia finds more and more ways to cut through Ukraine’s air defense, which is experiencing problems with a lack of intercepted missiles, changing enemy tactics and unfriendly American politics. As they continue to dissect the latest Shahed delivery, the engineers say one of their biggest concerns is how the Russian drones are now controlled. The latest models are dissatisfied by the electronic warfare of Ukraine, they say. This is because they no longer rely on Jammable GPS, driven by artificial intelligence, and on Ukraine’s own internet and mobile internet networks. The team said they recently discovered a note in one of the drones they dissolved – who was probably left by a sympathetic Russian engineer, which appears to the new control algorithm. The drones are controlled via the Telegram Social-Media platform. Not long ago, most of the drone hunting was done by mobile teams with cheap machine guns, shoulder-powered missiles and short-distance artillery. Now, says Colonel Denys Smazhny, an officer in the air defense powers, the drones regularly move around these groups. They initially fly low to avoid detection, and then climb sharply to 2,000–2 500 meters as they are close to cities, and violate the threshold for small calibre guns. Thus, Ukraine turns to helicopters, F-16 fighters and interceptdrones, which began to show good results. A senior official says the air defense around Kyiv still extinguishing about 95% of the drones throwing Russia on it. But the 5% going through causes serious damage. Ukraine still has a fight against drones and speed missiles. But the prospects against ballistic threats are gloomy. Only a handful of countries have systems that can counteract such fast and destructive weapons. In the Western world, the US Patriot system has an effective monopoly on the ballistic air defense business. Ukraine now has at least eight Patriot batteries, although some are damaged and restored at any given time. Their teams manage them with impressive skill. Since spring 2023, they have beaten more than 150 ballistic and air-skipped ballistic missiles. But the systems are largely concentrated around Kyiv. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine needs at least ten more, with corresponding stock of the PAC-3 interceptions using the system to make its cities feel safe. He insists that the country is ready to pay everything it takes, which is believed to use European money. The reaction of the White House was not attached. The problem is that the Ukraine of the Biden administration is a priority for the Biden administration to just one of only many potential customers competing for limited production under Donald Trump. Lockheed Martin, who builds the Patriot systems and their PAC-3s, increases its production to 650 missiles a year. But it is about 100 less than the projected Russian production of ballistic missiles, with a source of Ukraine estimating that the Kremlin has a 500 missile stock. It usually takes two PAC-3-minded missiles to intercept a Russian ballistic rocket. For China Hawks in the Trump administration, a patriot system or rocket sent to Ukraine is one less that can be sent to the Pacific theater. Even the most Ukraine-friendly administration-which this one is not, not, is difficult to keep up with the persistent Russian threat. Ukraine has asked for the right to produce its own version of the PAC-3 under license, but knows it is unlikely. There are joint production projects in the pipeline elsewhere in Europe. But in all cases, the breakthrough point is at least a year away. Ukraine may need to develop a survival strategy that should compile air defense with air offense and deterrence. “We will have to destroy Russian launch complexes, the factories and the stores,” says Mr. Kryvolap, the aviation expert. “We should be under no illusions.”