How did the Russian ruble challenge the sanctions and overcome expectations against the dollar in 2025?

The Russian currency has surprised the markets with its strong rise since the beginning of 2025, in light of the strict Western sanctions against Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Russian ruble was expected to be a sharp drop, it exceeded expectations and gained noticeable profits. This exceptional achievement raises questions about the factors that contributed to the ruin’s ruin despite the economic restrictions imposed. 1- How has the payment of the ruble against the dollar since the beginning of the year? The Russian ruble continued its strong performance to exceed its profits by 42% against the dollar, and maintained the top of the best performance currencies from the beginning of the year to May 27, according to the “Bloomberg” data. In mid -last month, the Russian ruble rose to 80.22 against the US dollar in the local market, which is the strongest level since May 31, 2023, according to the “Bank of Russia” data. Since June 2024, the Russian central bank relied on bank transactions to calculate the exchange rate, after the United States set up sanctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange. 2- What are the factors behind the ruin of the ruble? At the forefront of these factors, the monetary policy is tightened, as the Russian central bank kept the basic interest rate at 21%, with the aim of combating inflation, which contributed to attracting capital, providing an appropriate environment for interest trading, combating the local currency, reducing the importation of foreign results. At the same time, the Russian authorities are obliged to sell part of their income in foreign currencies in the local market, which adds more support to the ruble. In addition to the fall in the dollar, as the US currency has decreased in the light of the continued fluctuations of customs duties, and the increase in investors’ concerns for US assets, contributing to the emergence of the Russian ruble. A recent report from the Russian Central Bank showed that the appetite for the purchase of foreign currencies in Russia is gradually declining, and that it has already fallen to the lowest levels since the imposition of sanctions on the Moscow stock exchange, and the suspension of the US dollar circulation and the euro. According to the bank, export -related currency sales dropped only 2% despite the significant drop in oil prices, suggesting that exporters still turn their revenue to the Russian ruble at a stable rate. The improvement of geopolitical relations between Moscow and Washington has contributed to the improvement of confidence in the Russian economy, which is positively reflected on the value of the ruble. A state of optimism has supported the possibility of the Kremlin war against Ukraine, the Russian currency since the beginning of this year, as US President Donald Trump’s attempt is trying to end the fighting. Russia imposed restrictions on the capital, which reduced the escape of capital and currency support. Despite all these profits, the data of the Central Bank of Russia shows in mid -April that the ruble in the local market rose by only 19% to reach about 82.77 against the dollar this year, that is, less than the profits recorded in foreign markets. This contrast is attributed to various exchange rates at the end of last year, when the Russian markets were closed due to holidays, while the global trade continued. The dollar’s trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange has been suspended since the US sanctions introduced in the summer of last year, causing the activities associated with the dollar to the trading markets outside the stock exchange. This led to the complexity of prices to determine prices and led to a gap between the local and international pricing of the currency. Alex Asiakov, chief expert of the Russian economy with Bloomberg, said: The ruble has benefited from three developments since the beginning of the year: the first is the improvement of the relationship between Putin and Trump, which strengthened the trust in Russian markets and reduced the demand for assets in difficult currencies; The second is the extremist monetary policy that has reduced local demand for imports, and has increased from the net foreign exchange of foreign currencies; National wealth for selling loud currencies and balance amid low oil prices. “3- How does the rise of the Ruble Affect the Russian Economy? The rise in the Rubble Contributes to Reducing the Cost of Imports, which reduces the Rate of Inflation and Attracts Foreign Investments Looking for High Returns and Enhancing Investor confidence in the Russian Economy. Hand, the rise of the Ruble Would Reduce Export Revenues, Especially Oil, which the state needs to provide significant spending on budget items, as well as affecting exports, as the high value of the ruble reduces the competitiveness of Russian exports in the world markets. Lowest level, according to the international energy agency, based in Paris. Loans support the Russian currency, ‘said Sophia Donets, the chief economist of T-investments: