The gains of ship companies under the microscope with the return of movement to the Red Sea

Global Shipping Companies, from AP Moller-Maersk a the/s, may change Cosco Shipping Holdings Co, who recorded big profits last year, changed its activity for the worse during 2025, with the possibility that the Red Sea Road returns and the imposition of US Customs. US President Donald Trump has planned to impose new import fees causing trade damage, while the possibilities of a permanent ceasefire in the midst of the east can restore the movement of shipping through the Suez channel, which will lead to low prices. According to the “World Container Index” data, the global ship prices dropped by 5.9% weekly. The Shanghai holding index is about 57% of its highlight in July. Lee Class Kov, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote: “Marine Shipping is a volatile industry and is exposed to flowering and deflation cycles.” He added that the ship companies would “not reach a good year without the Red Sea crisis,” and noticed that the conversion of paths by the head of Good Hope added between 10 days and 15 days after flights. Classov and his colleague Kenneth Luo continued in a research note on February 20: “There are no organic engines that can help stop the continuous decline in 2025.” The size of the effect of US fees and the reopening of the Red Sea, according to an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, Axel Sterman, is likely to increase the US fees on Chinese goods to reduce the volume of the container by 1.5% and 2% in 2025, with the expectation of 3.5% to 4% when excluding these fees. His accounts also showed that the reopening of the Red Sea Road, which is expected during the year, could lead to a decrease in container demand by about 6%. “If these two scenarios are reached together, the capacity industry rates, which will also be influenced by the ongoing high growth in the Navy, will be subjected to severe falling pressure in 2025, with the possibility that immediate prices will fall by 30% to 40% compared to 2024,” Voicean said. Parash Jain, head of world transport and logistical research at HSBC, also noted that the short benefits caused by preliminary purchases before the imposition of fees from China began to fade. City analysts, including Cassidet Chunnawat, wrote in a memorandum that Trump’s plans are threatening long -term expectations for the sector, pointing out that the proposed fees could mean the cost of higher units of the Pacific Line. ‘Cosco Shipping’ is the most vulnerable because of the high percentage of Chinese ships in its fleet, while the Taiwanese and Japanese loading panels can benefit, according to analysts. Baking financial forecasts expects “Merck” operating profits before benefits, taxes, depreciation and consumption of $ 6 billion and $ 925, compared to $ 12.1 billion last year. The company said on February 6 that if the Red Sea passage was reopened by the middle of the year, the profits could reach the minimum of this series, but if the closure continues until the end of the year, it may reach the upper limit. “It seems that the year 2025 is unstable for Mirsk.” Asian ship companies, whose results will be announced next month, face a decline in profits during 2025. Cosco, the largest shipping business in the world in terms of market value, said in a preliminary report in January that the net profits doubled last year. However, expectations indicate that the profits are almost 50% this year. As for the Taiwanese ship companies, which depends more on the Pacific trade, which sees a greater fluctuation in ship prices, they have similar challenges. The amended net profits of ‘Evergreen Marine Corp’ are expected to jump four times in 2024, but it could fall by more than 30% in 2025. Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp could increase by more than ten times in 2024, but this year could fall by more than 50%. The net income of the Japanese company “Nippon Yusen KK” for the financial year ending in March 2026 will fall by 45%. According to analysts, the concept of customs duties is while ship companies are well aware of the impact of the reopening of the Suez channel. ‘Merck’ expects to challenge consumers’s demand to increase the trade war; Where you expect 4% growth in the global holding market this year. “Shipping companies realize that the reopening of the Suez channel will have a tangible impact on direct prices, but it does not appear to be convinced that customs duties will strongly harm the market,” Kepler Shofro voiceann said. Hapag-Lloyd AG has reduced the effect of fees in its latest profit call. “When Trump was in power in the first presidential period, we certainly saw the impact of the fees he imposed on goods from China, but that did not necessarily lead to a decrease in world trade, but only led to a trade flow. I would not be surprised if the same is repeated this time.” Although the trade flow is not affected, customs duties are likely to affect the purchasing power of consumers and thus on request, according to Laklaskov of Bloomberg Intelligence. As far as CMA CGM SA is concerned, the French giant shipping company owned by billionaire Rudolph Saada, which is a long-term partner for Chinese ship businesses, became more careful. “We follow this matter carefully, and we work with clients to prepare for solutions if needed. The largest trading flow comes from China to Western economies, especially the United States, so any action that targets China will have an impact on all parties,” the financial manager of the Ramon Fernandez company said on Friday. The Asian shipping companies are expected to recognize the impact of the possible fees on their profits during the profit calls next month, but they will probably not explicitly express the new fees proposed on Chinese commercial ships, according to analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, Kenneth Luo. He said: “A consensus in the market prevails that there is a great possibility that this proposal is merely a negotiating tactic and may not actually be implemented.”