Is raising customs duties a turning point on the Arab trading card?

The Arabic region is currently facing challenges in its commercial relations with the United States, following an unprecedented wave of customs duties imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump in the framework of ‘America First’ policy, as Trump on April 2 announced the imposition of a wide series’ fees on the commercial partners of its country. Later, Trump announced a 90 -day deadline in which these fees were frozen while retaining the basic definition percentage of 10%. The effects of these fees were not limited to oil exports, but also expanded to include important -oil -goods, which is an increasing part of Arab exports. Some countries show relative flexibility and opportunities to increase their competitiveness, but other countries have direct and indirect pressure affecting their economic stability and public financial. In light of this reality, policymakers in the Arab countries must adopt accurate strategies that combine the protection of current profits, the investment of global trading transformations and the improvement of self -capacity to adapt to an international environment that is volatile and uncertainty. 1) Where do trade relations stand between the Arab region and the United States? The Arabic exports of commodities to the United States dropped from $ 91 billion in 2013 (6% of the total) to $ 48 billion in 2024 (3.5% of the total), due to the decline in US imports of crude oil and petroleum products, according to the Economic and Social Committee of the Asia Western (Escwa). The organization is one of the five regional committees subject to the mandate of the United Nations Economic and Social Council. The United States has maintained a trade surplus at the Arab region since 2015, and it reached about 20 billion dollars in 2024. Most Arab countries have a medium or low part of exports to the US market, with the exception of Jordan. Energy and metal products dominate the Arab exports to the United States. Although non -oil exports from the Arab region to the United States increased from $ 14 billion in 2013 to $ 22 billion in 2024. The new customs duties imposed by the United States on Arab goods will have a direct impact on this non -oil export to the US market, while oil exports and petroleum products are exempt from new customs increases. 2) How do customs influence Arab countries affect? 6 Arab countries are expected to have a major impact, 5 countries with a minor impact and 11 countries with little or no. The export of six Arab countries, namely Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia, is expected to be greatly influenced by the new customs duties, which means that 5% or more of its total exports are directly affected, according to “Escwa”. Jordan is also most affected, as about 25% of its goods are exported to the United States. The export of five Arab countries, which are Algeria, the sultanate of Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will be slightly affected, which means that less than 5% of total exports will be subject. The United Arab Emirates re -export market, which amounts to about $ 10 billion to the United States, could be affected by the fees set on the original exporting countries. Three Arab countries, Iraq, Kuwait and Libya, are also never exported or exported to only small amounts of oil -commodities to the US market, and are therefore not subject to a direct impact of customs increases. There are eight countries in the region, which is the Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, the state of Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen, did not export goods to the United States in 2024, indicating that direct exposure to the increases in the fees is very small. 3) What about the potential indirect effects of fees? Although the new customs duties have a limited direct influence on the export of Arab countries to the US market, and are mainly concentrated in non -oil -the Arab economies may have indirect negative consequences due to poor world demand, especially of China and the European Union, and they are senior buyers of Arabic goods. The European Union houses 72% of the export of Tunisia and 68% of Morocco exports, and is a destination for 17% of total Arab exports. China also imports 22% of oil and chemical products for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and 15% of the total export of Arab countries. 4) Does the new American drawings affect Arabic exports? The pure effect of increasing customs duties on Arabic exports to the world is limited, but the consequences differ between the groups of Arab countries, according to “Escwa”. Karim Awad, CEO of the EFG Holding Group, believes that the fees on Egypt and the wave states are not ‘frightening’, and in a previous interview with ‘Al -Sharq’ explain that the definitions represent the minimum compared to the relationships imposed on the rest of the world. In the same context, Jihad Adour, director of the Department of Middle East and Central Asia at the International Monetary Fund, said that the direct effects of US customs duties are expected to be limited to the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, given their limited exposure to Washington and the exemptions to energy products. The countries of the Agadir Agreement (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia) are expected to face an average net impact in 2025, and this is mainly attributed to the effects of transforming the trade that reduces the direct negative impact on the initial exports to the US market, according to “Eskua”. The pure impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is also expected to be limited. On the contrary, a greater positive impact can be achieved if these countries do well to utilize their competitiveness in the Transport and Logistics Services, which apply especially to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. US customs duties can provide greater opportunities to enter Egyptian and Moroccan exports to European and US markets, especially in light of the strong industrial base in the two countries, according to the head of the research sector in “EFG” that Ahmed Shams El Din “al Sharq”. He added that the Arab and Golf Countries could play a major role in the global supplies of Western countries, with their strong private sector. However, the wave states can cause significant losses in oil income, due to low oil prices and the decline in the volume of export. As a result, the United States trade balance surplus is currently at the Arab region. It is likely that the Arab countries will tend to diversify their import resources, with the possibility of increasing their imports from the European Union and China as alternatives to the highest cost of the United States. There is also a possibility to increase the amount of inter -arab trade, especially among the countries of the Agadir agreement. 5) Is there an effect on investors and citizens? The increase in customs duties leads to indirect negative consequences for global financial stability and investor confidence, resulting in a noticeable increase in sovereign effects. The increase in yields can also increase the financing costs of the markets, and this especially affects the countries of medium income that carry large liabilities in the service of the debt. In the period between 2 and 9 April 2025, mortgage returns for 10 years increased by 32 basis points in the Gulf cooperation council countries, and 36 basis points in Arab countries in medium income. As the yields are large, the Arab countries have already suffered from debt increase- an increase in borrowing costs, increasing interest payments. How can Arab countries face the effects of fees? In a recent research article, ISCWA has made several recommendations to the Arab countries to meet the impact of fees, and how to benefit, include preparing for different and non -symmetrical consequences, as some countries can benefit from improving their price competitiveness, while other countries may experience direct losses in export or financial pressure as a result of the low energy prices in the demand in India. In addition to the deepening of regional integration to increase flexibility, through frameworks such as the large Arab free trade zones, the Gulf Dewares and the Agadir Convention, to improve the collective negotiating capacity and increase the inter -trade as a way to record external shocks. And commercial partnerships to diversify investment, the countries of the region must re -evaluate their commercial strategy, diversify their markets, and collective negotiations to protect their regional economic interests and increase their flexibility before mono shocks and global demand shocks. With active involvement in strategic negotiations with the United States, Arab countries must seek a constructive dialogue with the United States, parallel to other world parties who want to practice customs duties. Participation should focus on maintaining access to markets and ensuring preferential treatment wherever possible. Finally, it can benefit from legal and preferential exceptions. Instead of a similar response, Arab countries should strategically strive to get exceptions under existing free trade agreements or special frameworks such as qualified industrial areas.