Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Follow -up is still buying

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. As the old saying says: Hope sprouts forever in the human heart, the US federal reserve chair Powell has lit hope in the hearts of bulls. Summary While Fed chairman Powell’s Dovish leadership has lifted US indexes, the follow-up purchases in Indian markets remain uncertain due to the expiry of the expiry and a shortened trading week. Dear reader, I wrote last week that markets would move to the fundamentals, even if they were wired hard to seek bullish triggers. While the market opened with a bullish gap for the week, the higher levels of profitable were taking. It not only closed profits, but caused the sale in large enough numbers to force a weekly closing at almost the lowest points of the weekly series. As I pointed out last week, the optimism about lower goods and services (GST) rates initially cheered the traders. The returns of sovereign bonds have caused a mini sale in bank shares. With the highest weight of 37.86% in the Nifty 50, this sector has a weight higher than the next four heavily weighted sectors together. There can be no sustainable rally in the markets without the participation of the bank Nifty. I regularly compared the two indexes to the wheels of a bike. Unless the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty move in unanimously the bike (market) becomes vulnerable to a fall. As the old saying says: Hope sprouts forever in the human heart, the US federal reserve chair Powell has lit hope in the hearts of bulls. He was tackled by US President Donald Trump and gave forward guidance on the consideration of a coupon reduction during the upcoming Fed meeting. The US indexes vaulted on Friday. It can be taken into account in our markets on Monday, but I’m not sure if I’m following up. First, it is an expiry week, which is also a shorter week due to a holiday Wednesday. Fresh buying can be weak under these circumstances, while short covering is always an open possibility. Short coverage can decrease declines or even cause a temporary rally, but it requires aggressive fresh buy to take markets to a new high. Last week, I wrote that industrial metals seemed weak to international commodity exchanges. The hypothesis was ratified by the commodity markets. The drop in copper prices was especially mentioned. This metal, known as ‘Dr Copper’ or the ‘Tin Roof of the Economy’, is used in almost every industry. It fell noticeably last week. Usually, the calendar month ends of the testimony of a short coverage in industrial metals. If they don’t get up this week, it’s a fool in the armor of bulls. Metal mining supply may also experience pressure at higher levels. Oil and gas prices dropped when I deprived the super bike or even a bull market hypothesis in energy. I keep sticking out my neck over energy markets that are well provided. Tele will be sold. Bullion remains a robust, prolonged, bullish story, as long as my readers are willing to look far above 2025, to keep deliveries, to pay financing costs under the financing of the margin and/or by derivative buyers. Stick to a patient game. Public Sector (PSUs) businesses will continue to see high participation in traders as the open interest remains. Among the PSUs, bank shares will need a great attention as I expect greater than average price movements in the banking and financial sector stocks. Fixed revenue investors should continue to keep the powder dry, as the Indian sovereign yield of ten years since March 8 has risen to the highest level. Bond markets confirm my hypothesis that the last word about coupon rate has not yet been spoken. Further rate cuts will be difficult and counterproductive. Trading light due to expiration and a short week with strict stoposes and hacienda fences in their place. A tutorial video on the star risk (Hacienda) hedges is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Aungqxhbfk Again View Mirror Let us judge what happened last week so we can determine what we can expect this week. The broad -based Nifty 50 rose, while Bank dived Nifty due to the yields of the zoom effects. The strength displayed by the US dollar index has dragged sentiment for emerging markets, including India. The rupee, on the other hand, showed strength when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) entered to sell dollars and made the impact of a strong dollar blunt. Safe Haven buys Bullion on Friday to Powell’s speech on a possible rate reduction in September. Oil and gas fell along the expected lines. The return of 10 years increased 0.145% on falling bond prices. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) rose 1.94% in the market cap, as the purchase was based in the first sessions. Market -wide position restrictions (MWPL) rose regularly before the expiration. American head indices were a mixed bag. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) benchmark has weekly profits mainly due to Friday’s increase. These profits can reflect in our markets in the first half of the short trading week. Look at the complete image change in the prognosis of asset prices – Bank shares are the soft lower abdomen of the market data source – Vijay L. Bhambwani Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple, yet very accurate measure to measure the conviction of retailers – where they deploy money. I measure what percentage of turnover has been contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more futures that need substantial capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the term space, index futures are less volatile than stock material. A higher footprint in the futures contracts shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are the average of all trading days of the week)-the trading turnover has risen in high-risk capital-intensive futures segment. Part of the reason was the roll -up process before the expiration. Traders close their trades in the expired week and initiate the same in the next month and record the double turnover. Higher roll also indicates a higher risk appetite. In the relatively lower risk, lower volatility options segment, it was the stock options that had a higher turnover. Index options are the least risky segment of these four. Thus, traders have shown a higher risk appetite for a whole. Look at the full image NSE F&O component turnover Prognosis -Risk enhanced in F&O dealers data source -Vijay L. Bhambwani Matryoshka analysis lets us peel the layer to a layer of statistical data to get to the core message of the markets. The first chart I share is the NSE Advance-Decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds blow. This simple yet accurate indicator calculates the ratio of the number of rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as the shares of the losers are, bulls are dominant. These metric measures the risk appetite of one marshmallow traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty beat smaller profits last week due to the late sale on Friday. The pre-deckine ratio has improved to 1.37 (last week 0.90), which means there were 137 shares for every 100 losers. Intraday risk was higher last week. Success purchases are essential to maintain the upward rate. A Tutorial Video about the Marshmallow theory in trading is here-www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFNKVTSCWFY View Full Image NSE Advance-Decline Ratio Prognosis Intraday Traday has shown an improved risk-loop data. Market-Wide position limits. It measures the amount of exposure used by traders in the derivatives (F&O) as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a measure of the risk appetite of two marshmallow traders. It is with deep pockets with high compensation that roll their trades to the next session/s. While the MWPL lecture rose regularly last week, the profits were smaller and the overall lecture was lower in pre-expiration week compared to the previous months. This indicates a certain element of hesitation in the bull camp. For a sustainable bull market prices and MWPL, MWPL should rise unanimously. It will be critical to take note of the fall in MWPL post-expires and compare it to previous months. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways is available here-HTTPs: //www.youtube.com/watch? V = T2QBguk7qri View Full Image Marketwide Position Limits Prognos-Employment Traders Sharing of Risk Data Source-Vijay L. Bhambwani Ins-House Indicator ‘Competus. ” It measures the power in any price increase. Last week, the Nifty Rose, while the bank fell Nifty. However, the impetus reading has risen for both indices. This indicates that the sale on bank Nifty was due to a higher momentum. It is not a bullish sign for a sector that has 37.86% weight in the Nifty 50. Unless both indices get up together, I would consider any rally as suspect. Look at the full image Nifty and Bank Nifty Impetus Prognosis Both Indexes have moved as a result of a higher momentum data source-vijay L. Bhambwani The final graph I share is my internal indicator ‘LWTD.’ It calculates elevator, weight, pushing and dragging that is encountered by any security. These are four powers that any plane faces during the flight so that it applies to traded securities, helps a trader who estimates the general sentiments. The Nifty beat smaller profits last week, but the LWTD reading increased from -0.20 in the previous week to 0.27. This indicates short coverage of support may improve this week. This is in line with the expiration date, as more shorts are covered than is transferred to the next derivative series. What is needed is fresh buy to maintain the recent renovation, although a shaky one. A tutorial video on the interpretation of the LWTD indicator is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAG076z1adk View Full Image Nifty and LWTD indicator Prognosis – Improved short cover probably data source – Vijay L. It occurs when the closure is lower than the opening and the open in the bottom of the weekly series. Bulls may strive to push prices higher, but fail and the price is rising in the lower end of the week’s range. This is an indication of an abortive stir, as the follow -up purchase is missing. The price remains above the 25 -week average, which is a proxy for the cost of six months at the cost of an average investor. This makes the medium -term Outlook optimistic for now. Last week, I called the 24,200 level as a support and the 24,750 level as an obstacle. Bulls need to defend the lower level and keep the nice trade above the higher level to keep their grip on the markets this week. Look at the full image Nifty Spot Prognosis high levels attract the profit selling card source-www.tradingview.com View the 24.200 level as a short-term support. Only an explanation above the 24,750 level increases the possibility of a short-term rally. Last week, I estimated between 56,425 – 54.250 and 25.125 – 24.125 on the bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Both indices traded within their specified levels. This week I estimate I vary between 56.150 – 54.150 and 25.325 – 24.425 on the bench respectively Nifty and Nifty. Trading light with strict stop losses. Avoid brands with distributions wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of www.bsplindia.com, its own trading firm. He tweets at @vijay bhambwani. 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