S&P 500 at Risk from Iran-Israel Conflict, History of Bouncing Back – ryan

The s & p 500 has shrugged off Israel’s conflict with Iran so far, trading 1% Lower as of Tuesday’s Close. If the Benchmark Stock Index Does Slide, History Suggests It Will Come Roaring Back.

“The escalation in the middle east brings into Focus the playbook for geopolitical shocks and risk, which entails Sharp Equity selloffs, which is intuitive, but also surprisingly quick recoveries, which is not. said in a recent not.

“The Typical Pattern is for the S&P 500 to Pull Back About -6% in 3 Weeks But That’s Rally All the Way Back in Another 3,” They Wrote, Attaching a Table Showing How the Index Fared 32 Previous Geopolitical Events.

Jim Reid, Deutsche’s Global Head of Macro Research, Said in a Note this Week a Stronger Market Reaction Could be Sparked by Direct US Involvement in the Clash or Target of Iran’s Oil Production or Shipping Infrastructure 20% of Global Daily Trade Flows.

Bouncing Back

The Deutsche Strategists’ Table of Fascinating Look at How the Stock Market Has Reacted to Many of the Most Significant Geopolitical Events of the Past Century.

The s & p, and the index that preceded it Launch in 1957, has only crashed more than 20% follow two geopolitical incidents. IT FELL ABOUT 21% AFTER ADAGER HITLER’S GERMANY Annexed Czechoslovakia in March 1939, and by 26% after the nazis invaded France in May 1940.

The Benchmark Tumbled More than 15% After the Israel-Arab War Broke Out in October 1973, prompting an oil embargo that blocked crude exports to the US and Other Nations, and after the first gulf be began in august 1990.

The s & p tanked by more than 10% on four occasions: North Korea’s Invision of South Korea in June 1950, the 9/11 Attacks In September 2001, Pearl Harbor in December 1941, and the Iranian hostage crisis in november 1979.

TAKING THE MEDIA EVENT, The S&P Typically Falls by 6% Over 17 Trading Days and Then Fully rebounds Over The Next 16 Trading Days. It tends to rally nearly 15% from its trough over a 12-month period.

Howver, A Swift Bounceback is not guaranteed. Recovering from the Oil Crisis of 1973 Took 1,475 Trading Days or Nearly Six Years, for Deutsche’s Table – with the s & p Falling a sturgery 28% its trough over 12 months.

The Index Also Fell 15% From Its Trough in the Year After the Berlin Wall Was Built in August 1961, and 13% in the Year after President Nixon’s Impeachment Proceedings Began.

At the other exherme, the benchmark soaRed by About 42% from its trough in the 12 months after the Israel-Hamas conflict began in october 2023.

It jumped more than 30% in the year after North Korea invaded South Korea in June 1950, the Iraq War Broke Out in March 2003, and the Cuban Missile Crisis Erupted in October 1962.

It ‘son soon to say the Israel-Iran Conflict Will Join the List of Most impactful geopolitical events for the s & p. Revisionwing Historical Market Reaction May Investors As the Index Tent to Recover Quickly From These Kinds of Disruptions, THOUGH WORTH REMEMBERING THE FALL SHARPLY AND STAYERWATER FOR YEARS.