Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Greg Sheridan, The Wall Street Journal 4 min Read 18 Apr 2025, 07:17 AM IST PRABOWO INCREASES INDONESIA RUSTLAND BANDS, which raise US concerns about the growing local military links. (Beeld: Reuters) Summary Putin and XI are working to strive for the world’s fourth largest nation with military and economic promises. The news that Russia is looking for Air Force aircraft in Indonesia was startling, immediately denied and almost certainly true. Although it is a characteristic dark story, it bears lessons that the Trump administration should notice. One is that the US is unlikely to win the strategic, military, economic or technology competition with China unless it has a strong position in Southeast Asia. Another is that the China Russia alliance is stricter than ever, and it is becoming increasingly worldwide. A third is that if you want to understand Beijing’s strategic policy in Asia today, you should look at the geography of Japan’s military campaigns in World War II. The Open Source Military and Security Website Janes.com for the first time requested a Russian request for the Indonesian Manhua Air-Force Base, on Biak Island in the remote Indonesian province of Papua. The story caused a stir in Australia because Biak is only 850 miles from Darwin, with its considerable US military presence. Australia’s defense minister Richard Marles reported that his Indonesian counterpart, Shafrie Shamsoeddin, told him the report was false. But don’t rest assured. Indonesia is a nation of 290 million. It explains faithfulness to the non-aligned movement, so a permanent foreign basis in its field is extremely unlikely. Like all giant countries-the population is only smaller than India, China and the US-Can Indonesia somewhat self-obsessed. This is the giant of Southeast Asia. According to President Prabowo Subianto, a former General and Minister of Defense who has been banned from entering the US for some time, Indonesia has become much closer to Russia. Like New -Delhi, Jakarta is strategically promiscuous. It has signed a defense agreement with Australia, but Russia is the largest military supplier. Shortly after he was elected, Mr. Prabowo Vladimir Putin will visit in Moscow. Military cooperation was high on the agenda. Mr. Prabowo took Indonesia to the Brics group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Indonesia opposed the trilateral aukus agreement, in which Australia will acquire in the core-powered submarines. Indonesia and Russia conduct significant commodities trade. Russia has been sought a presence in Southeast Asia for some time and looked unsuccessfully to revive elements of his old alliance with Vietnam. Although it will not get a permanent base in Indonesia, there are other ways in which Moscow can get a better military presence there. For example, in the past, it has been based air force aircraft in Biak. We know in Australia anything about the host of Allied forces without establishing a foreign military base. Pine Gap, in the northern area of Australia, is one of America’s most important signals intelligence stations. It is a joint US Australian facility, not technically an American base. Similarly, American marines, ships and aircraft turn through Australia. This is probably the presence of such American forces in Australia is an important part of Russia’s thinking about Indonesia. Russia’s ambassador to Jakarta, Sergei Tolchenov, responded to the air base story with a statement confirming that military cooperation forms the core of the relationship between Indonesia and Russia. But it is pure bilateral, he said, not directed at any third country. He also claims that the US forces in Australia were the real military risk in the region, especially US missiles that could hit Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asian countries. Why would Russia choose an oral battle with the US in Australia and Indonesia, when Mr. Putin performs the dance of the seven veils with President Trump over Ukraine? One reason would be to compel Beijing. Xi Jinping was on a tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. His message in the aftermath of the Trump administration’s volatile tariff performance is that Beijing is a more reliable partner than Washington. It complements Beijing’s efforts to get military presence and leverage throughout the region. Most Southeast Asians are afraid of China and want the US to balance its influence. But with the exception of Singapore, they are all either poor or middle -income countries. The Trump tariffs were a big shock, and more than anything against the stability that the US once represented. The presence of China in Indonesia is hampered by the persecution of ethnic Chinese in the past, and the association with Indonesian communism in the 1960s. Russia does not have that luggage. It may be an occasional regular, military presence, even a regular, military presence. Indonesia and Russia did their first joint maritime exercises in November. Finally, remember the geography of the Japan’s Pacific War. It was fought in Southeast Asia and in the islands of the South Pacific. Beijing has repeatedly tried to sign security agreements with countries in the Pacific such as the Salomon Islands and Vanuatu. American and Australian intelligence takes it like Beijing wants a military base in the South Pacific. China’s military presence, now supplemented by Russia, threatens US forces in the region and is increasing Beijing’s ability to intimidate, force and influence other countries. For American allies like Australia, this is bad news. It’s also bad for the US. A US military presence, a reverent trade agenda and the continuation of the civic virtues with which the US traditionally inspired the world would win Southeast Asia for Uncle Sam. Indonesia is the largest nation that Americans know the least about, but its influence was considerable. For Washington to lose the influence, it would be tragic, unnecessary and dangerous. But it would make Russia – and China – very happy. Mr. Sheridan is foreign editor of the Australian. Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #Genitstate #Asia Economy #Defence Sector Mint Specials
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