Fears of Higher Price Caused by President Donald Trump’s Tariffs Unleashed A Burst Earlier in the Year, but that Winding Down – The Forecaster for Shoppers to Turn Thrifty Could on the Economy in the Coming Months.
Retail Sales Rose 0.1% in April, Down from the Prior Month’s 1.7% Increase. Credit and Debit Card USSERS LOOK LIKE THEY’VE BEEN SLOWING THEIR SPEMBER LATE APRIL, BANK OF AMERICAN SAID.
CARD SPEING EASED FROM 1.1% Year-Over -ear Growth in March to 1% Year-Over-Aar Growth in the Back Half of April. And over the first two Weeks of May, Spanding Growth has been flat with no year-over -ear increes, the bank said in a Note on thighsday.
Card Spanding Continue to Slow in May.
Bank of America Institute
“Given that Economic Uncetainty Remains Very High Amid the Imposition of Tariffs and Corresponding Price Increas, We Continue to Keep a Close on How the Consumer is Reacting,” The Bank’s Economists Wrote, Adding that the Believes The Trend of Consumers of Tariff “Larry Run Its Course.”
Forecasters Say that a Weaker consumer could be a Major Pain point in the US Economy in the months ahead. Consumer Spanding Makes Up Over Two-Thirds of GDP, and Has Helped Prop Up Growth in Recent Years.
Torsten sløk, the chief economist at apollo global management, said that a weaker consumer was among the top 10 risk he sees weighing on the US Economic Outlook.
“Retaillers Areing Prices Will Be Moving Higher Over The Coming Quarters. That’s What Everyone Expects,” Sløk Told Bloomberg on Tuesday. He added that higher prices could cause the fed to keep interest rate higher for longer as the central bank keeps an eye on inflation.
“But if grown is weakening – that is the expectation from the consensus. That what we’t see in the date you will have this stagflation,” he said, reference to a scenario how SLOWSHTS INFLATION REMINES High.
Doug Ramsey, the Cio of the Leuthold Group, Said This Week That He Sees the Risk of a “Self-Fulfilling Confidence Collaps” in the us. He pointed to weakened consumer sentiment indicators, like Higher Expectations for Inflation and UNEMPloyment in the Next Year.
Three Indicators of Conume Sentup Have Deteriorated Significantly in Recent Months
The Leuthold Group
Consumer Expectations Make Up A Big Chunk of the Economic Outlook and Could Weigh on GDP if Consumers Pull Back from Spanding. Excluding Other Factors, the Decline in Consumer Expectations Alone in Recent Months COUSE Real GDP Growth to Fall from About 3% to “Essentially Zero,” and Estimated.
“It ‘s an outcome that would not merely be self-Fulfilling, but self-inflicted as well,” Ramsey Wrote of A Potential Downturn.
Pantheon Macroeconomics Said It Believes A Slowdown in Consumption COUND COUNTER THE ECONOMY TO ENTER A period of “stagnation,” though the us will Likely avoid a recession.
Businesses, Meanwhile, Are Already Expecting Consumer Demand to Slow and Have Pulled Back on Hiring. Pantheon Pointed to Lower Hiring Intections in the Fed’s Regional Surveys and Higher-Than-Expected Continuing Nonbless Claims in the Last Week.
“A Large Share of These Jobs Likely Will Go As Consumers’ Spanding Swings from Above-Trend in Q3, after Tariff-Driven Price Have Kicked in. Accordingly, We Continue to Thing The Firm Will Rise and New Hiring Decline,” Samuel Tombs, The Theth. Economist at Pantheon, Wrote in a Note on Throlsday.
Forecasters have adjusted their outlooks SINCE the US and China toned Trade Tension, and Many Analysts Think the Economy Can Avoid A Recession in 2025. JPMORGAN SAID IT IT BELIVED The risk of recession haad dropped beak 50%, but remained elevated.