Trump's steel fees .. What are the expected consequences in the markets?

The global steel industry is preparing for the impact of the fees that US President Donald Trump plans to impose 25%, and is scheduled to start on March 12. Vietnam and India are one of the fastest growing steel producers in Asia, and they are especially at risk if Trump imposes comprehensive customs definitions on all US imports of this mineral. Trump’s duties are aimed at improving the protection of US producers, but also poses the risk of increasing global tensions in the steel market, suffering from increased Chinese exports. In Asia, the fear prevails that at least part of the new steel production will be added to the already saturated regional market if it is not exported to the United States. “We can see the sale of more steel from these countries, especially in Vietnam, as the new purpose (customs tariffs) will deter them to export to the United States,” said more solids for sale. Vietnam, the country in Southeast Asia, has become an important consumers and steel exporters over the past few years. Steel businesses in Asia, Europe and Latin America are already suffering from a cheap Chinese steel flow, as China exports reached its highest level in nine years in 2024, more than 110 million tonnes. This increase has provoked a wave of commercial complaints- the most recent of South Korea, and also urged the steel-producing businesses in other Asia countries to search for new markets. Chinese steel has overcrowded the markets, the executive order issued by Trump said Chinese exports “overcrowded production in other countries and force them to export more steel to the United States.” The European Union assesses its protection measures in response to the growing steel flow. In Asia, India is considering preventative measures, as Vietnam has investigated Chinese steel, and South Korea can conduct more investigations into Chinese products. The countries of the Asia -Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea and Australia, are currently enjoying exemptions from the current US rates imposed by the United States in Trump’s first state, as well as Canada, Mexico and a few other countries. Much depends on whether these countries will be able to negotiate for exceptions of any new customs lights. Steel prices descend if this does not happen, “the stock of exporters will be converted into other imported countries at competitive prices, especially in the light of an environment that increases global competition,” according to Sihul Bhatt, the director of research at the Indian company Crisil Intelligence. He added that this would lead to a decrease in steel prices in India, which are already close to the lowest levels in four years. There are factors that need to be taken into account before a final conclusion comes. The new customs rates have not yet been completed on the minerals that Trump imposed, which also targets aluminum. In the Asia -Pacific region, the influential flow is relatively small, and the exports of South Korea, Japan and Australia of Steel amounted to about 3.75 million tonnes last year, according to the US government’s data. The total amount of steel subject to customs definition changes worldwide is over 20 million tons. Specialized fixed products Some involved quantities also contain specialized fixed products that are expected to continue to flow to the United States, even if comprehensive customs definitions are set. But US customers will have to pay higher costs. Lawrence Chang and Tigo Vespoli, the two Wood Mackenzie analysts, said that Japan and Korea were used in the United States a high quality and specialized types of steel used in energy and car manufacturing infrastructure. There is also a possibility that the producers will have to reduce production rather than looking for alternative markets that are already excess excess. “It is almost impossible for the rest of the world to record these quantities, given the poor global demand for steel, which means other producing countries, including China, will have to reduce production,” says Shu Xiangzhon, an analyst of MyStel Global.