In the commodity market, there are two types of emerging markets: good markets, powered by strong demand, bad markets, powered by supply shocks. Good markets are usually more permanent and need higher prices for a longer period to encourage investment in new stocks; While the latter is often short. The copper market saw both types over a 25 -year period, as prices rose to a record level of $ 11104 per tonne last year, from $ 2000 in 2000. Often the factors are interwoven to the extent that it is difficult to determine which one is more important. Now it is very clear: this is the problem of the offer. Copper mines are subjected to many accidents annually, to the extent that analysts are surrounded by interruptions in their annual supplies. But even according to the criteria, the red metal saw much more disturbances than expected. Therefore, it is currently trading more than $ 10,000 at prices. The price of buyer is still rising from the highest level since May 2024, the list of this year interference. The Camwa-Kacola mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo saw floods in May, followed by an accident in the Lamine Lamine in Chile in July. Recently, social disorders disrupted the activities of the Constantia mine in Peru. But the worst came on September 8, when hundreds of thousand tons of clay rushed in underground tunnels in the Grasburg mine in Indonesia and killed a number of workers. Grassburg is not just an ordinary copper mine, but rather the second largest copper mine in the world, as it contributes about 4% of world production. Production is currently being stopped and will probably not return until 2027 again before the accident. In terms of size and expensive, it is a very large shock, which exceeds the annual disorder that analysts expect. Shall we see a ton of $ 40,000? Eventually, copper prices will have to rise to restore the balance in the market. Can a red metal exceed its highest level in 2024 to reach up to $ 12,000 per tonne, for example? perhaps. The loss of Grasberg is large enough, especially during the next six months, to the extent that high prices may be needed to combat demand. But do not confuse the shock of the offer and the start of a emerging market for many years. The most optimistic expectations certainly look illogical, and from that, Pierre Andrand, director of the basic commodities hedge fund, says prices will rise to $ 40 thousand dollars before 2030. The price of buyer continues with the market to absorb the “Fribport” mine to expand its wave, the metal needs more than just interventions in the supply: it needs a strong growth in demand in China. The giant Asian economy buys about half of the global copper consumption and needs more consumption to maintain an upward market. But now, don’t buy China, or at least not much. A poor Chinese request that the real estate sector in the country, which is a large consumer, is in stagnation. The export locomotive suffers amid the trade war with the United States. China exports about 20% of the buyer he buys in the final commodities electrical appliances, computers, cell phones and the like, so the concept that Chinese traders are not soon to buy. Luxury manufacturing companies pay higher prices than the reference prices to ensure the delivery of the metal in Shanghai, a major measure of the Asian market condition, and its price is still low with $ 50 per tonne, compared to an average of $ 60.5 per tonne for the period 2020-2025. China may need to reduce its standard of copper production due to the lack of crude, one could go beyond the current Chinese demand for a future in which refined copper consumption, according to the best estimates, doubles by 2035 to 50 million tonnes of about 25 million tonnes currently against the background of the transformation in the energy field. Copper is one of the best energy leaders, and it will need everything to replace everything – replace within -burning engines with electric cars, or heat pump heating instead of gas – large amounts of metal. But it is a future that appears only in the 2030 cards and beyond, and not the reality of the year 2025. The offer is later, but what about the question? Those who want to ignore the current claim must also ignore the ongoing supply failures. Because sooner or later miners will resume production. For example, let’s take the Panama bridge, which was concluded in November 2023 to a legal dispute, which led to the depletion of about 1.5% of the world’s supplies. The new Panamese government expressed its willingness to discuss its reopening, although on conditions. If the Panama Bridge mine resumes the production next year – which is somewhat excluded – it can be compensated for several other imbalances in the production. In addition, new projects will come into effect, with expected additions in 2026 of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Mongolia. ‘Copper’ can be the color of the future of Argentina in brass. Many of the ingredients needed to become the most rising market in the basic commodity industry. According to historical standards, the current prices are very high, especially if you look at the annual averages instead of daily prices. From the beginning of the year to date, the average price of the metal is about $ 9,600 per ton, which is the highest average annual ever. But to achieve a sustainable height, it is advised to focus on the timing of the acceleration of demand growth, rather than the hope that the rare offer will remain disappointed.
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