Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Markets under “Fog of War”

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Livemint 7 min read May 12, 2025, 06:00 Hours IT The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is depicted next to a police car in Mumbai, a summary The primary Fear Gripping Retail centiments are whether the two parties will go to a full -scale war and whether nuclear weapons will be used. After my humble opinion, the answer to both of these questions is – no. Dear reader, good morning! Last week I wrote that bulls would try to be bears. But it was subject to the warning – “Attempts by Bulls to Trump Bears will be subject to no new surprise negative trigger that emerges to play some pooper.” The surprise element was the Indian army that performed retaliatory strikes on Pakistan in response to the Pahalgam terror attacks. As the rhetoric and dip-ping (disinformation protocol in military parliament) escalated through Pakistani media and social media, traders showed carefully. It is a routine phenomenon, and the veteran market players are unlikely to flow through it. Notice how the weekly losses are mainly due to the fall on Friday alone. The markets were calm in the previous days. The primary fear of retailers is whether the two parties go to a full -scale war, and whether nuclear weapons will be used. After my humble opinion, the answer to both of these questions is – no. Remember that the last serious military involvement between Indian and Pakistani forces was during the Kargil conflict. Note the word “conflict” and not war. The Indian army did not classify Kargil as a full-fledged war, but as a Lico (a low-intensity fighting industry). The level of involvement, loss of life and armament used was far greater than in the current operations. The total mobilization, cancellation of leave of all military staff, was not implemented, and no statement of war was sounded. The fact that the retailer will be nervous can be measured by the fact that the district magistrate of Chandigarh banned domestic necessities, including food, prohibited from avoiding shortages. Regulatory announcements are unlikely to be limited to the daily living matters. I expect financial market regulators and/or stock exchanges ad -hoc, extreme loss margins (ELMs), concentration (exposure) margins, and perhaps even traded shells to increase as volatility of current levels. For any short -term trader, the simplest strategy to ensure survival during challenging times like this is capital conservation. Capital is your freedom to trade. Lose it, and you also lose your ability to trade. Bullion can receive buying support on declines, as has been seen since the last few quarters. Buying safe Haven is likely to continue. Look further than 2025 and even further. The long -term photo remains as favorable as ever. In the commodity space, oil and gas rose on optimism over a US -China trade agreement. Principles are likely to be limited, which is why the share prices of related industries will also see the average volatility in accordance with the broader markets. Industrial metals show pressure at higher levels, and metal mining share prices will also be limited. Bank and financial sector shares will remain in the spotlight due to the sector with 37.74% weight in the Nifty. My readers should trade lightly and focus on capital conservation. Stop losses must be maintained, and the gate of the hacienda (Hacienda) must be kept in place. With a tutorial video on the gate of the tail risk (Hacienda) is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aungqxhbfk Tarreview Mirror lets us judge what happened last week so we can guess what to expect in the coming week. The fall was led by the bank index, which dragged the broader -based Nifty 50 due to the mere weight alone. A fixed dollar that was further subdued has the subdued sentiments, which were careful due to the ongoing tension between India and Pakistan. Safe-Haven purchase in bullying is re-adjusted, causing the risk-down sentiments for paper assets. Oil and gas rose on the hope of a trade agreement, which is likely to raise inflationary concerns in the short term. The rupee weakened at a rising dollar and dragged sentiments lower. The Indian bond returns of ten years rose gently, which contributed the pressure on the bank Nifty. The NSE lost 1.53% of its market cap, showing a broad -based sales bias. Market -wide position restrictions (MWPL) rose regularly after expiration. Nervous -American markets have been advancing our markets. Look at complete image forecast – a strong dollar weighed on sentiments. Data Source – Vijay L. Bhambwani Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple but highly accurate measure to measure the conviction levels of retailers – where it deploys money. I measure what percentage of turnover has been contributed by the elementary and higher-risk instruments. If they trade more futures, which require substantial capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the term space, index futures are less volatile than stock material. A higher footprint in the futures contracts shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are the average of all trading days of the week) omseton contribution in the capital-intensive futures segment roses, which indicates higher retail participation. In the relatively lower-risk options segment, turnover increased in the stock options at higher risk and fell into the index options of the least risk. In general, participation levels were normal. Look at the complete image forecast -Risk appetite has remained steady in the F&O space data source -Vijay L. Bhambwani Matryoshka Analysis lets us peel the layer to a layer of statistical data to get to the core message of the markets. The first chart I share is the NSE Advance-Decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds blow. This simple yet accurate indicator calculates the ratio of rising and falling stocks. As long as the shares the losers get, bulls are dominant. These metric measures the risk appetite of one marshmallow traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty lost the soil last week, and the pre-deckline ratio became higher. However, it still showed weakness at 0.98 (last week 0.72). This means that there were 98 winers for every 100 losers. Intraday risk was muted. It should be noted that the fall was mainly due to the weakness on Friday. Look at these metric in the coming days. A tutorial video on the Marshmallow theory in trade is here – www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFNKVTSCWFY View Full Image Prognosis – Intraday purchase facility was low. Data Source-Vijay L. Bhambwani The second card I share is the market-wide position restrictions. It measures the amount of exposure used by traders in the derivatives (F&O) as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a measure of the risk appetite of two marshmallow traders. It is with deep pockets with high compensation that roll their trades to the next session/s. Although the MWPL reading rose last week, the levels recorded in the second week after expiry were the lowest in the 20-week period covered in the map. It tells us that retailers have improved their obligations in the slowest rate in months. Unless this lecture rises strongly, bulls are likely to sit on the fence. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL -data in more ways is available here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2qbguk7qri View Full Image Prognosis – Retailers noticed that the data source Cautious data source – Vijay L. Bhambwani, the third map -House -Indicator ‘Impetus. ” It measures the power in any price increase. Last week, both indexes fell. But the impetus that the bank read Nifty rose, while the nice reading fell. It tells our bank Nifty was a witness to powerful sale, and Nifty fell due to a lack of buying support. Remember the heavy weight of the bank and financial shares in the Nifty 50. I often compare these indices with the two wheels of a bike. They must move in unit or overturn the bike (market) risks. Take a look at the Bank Nifty Keenly this week. Look at complete image forecast bank shares on a sales data source case-Vijay L. Bhambwani The final chart I share is my internal indicator ‘LWTD.’ It calculates elevator, weight, pushing and dragging that is encountered by any security. These are four forces with which any powered aircraft face during the flight, so applying them to traded securities helps a trader to estimate general sentiments. The Nifty -mentioned losses, but the LWTD rose spectacularly to 0.51 (previous week -0.22). It tells us this week can buy a more aggressive short coverage of deterioration and/or improved fresh. Of course, this is subject to no new fresh negative triggers coming up. A tutorial video on the interpretation of the LWTD indicator is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAG076Z1adk View Full Image Prognosis – Expected improved sentiments of week data fire – Vijay L. Bhambwani Nifty’s verdict, I warned that the 24,800 -hum The over the way. Due to the prevailing nervousness, markets could not scale higher after that resistance area. So, this obstacle remains a trend -determining threshold that bulls must overcome to regain control. The week recorded a clumsy swollen pattern. It occurs when the last big chandelier’s body engulfs the previous smaller bullish candles’ bodies. This indicates that bears have engulfed or muted. Unless the highlight of this clumsy candle is powerfully overcome at 24.526, no new bullish breakout is possible. Even then, the 24,800 resistance to area remains in place. The price is higher than the average of 25 weeks, which is the six -month average holding costs of a retail investor. The prospect of medium term is positive until the price remains above this average. I suggest that short -term traders like to buy until the 24.526 level is powerfully overcome. Look at the complete Beeld Forecast Bears this past week, a prescribed bulls in the maps-www.tradingview.com have your call to take action look at the 24,526 level as a short-term resistance. Staying above this level strengthens bulls. Last week I framed between 56,825 – 53.425 and 25.075 – 23.600 on the bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Both indices are traded within specific parameters. This week I estimate I range from 55.325 – 51.850 and 24.750 – 23.250 on the bank to Nifty and Nifty respectively. Trading light with strict stop losses. Avoid brands with distributions wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of www.bsplindia.com, its own trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani, catches all the business news, market news, news articles and latest news updates on live currency. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #Ticker by Vijay L Bhambwani Mint Specials