The escalation between America and India .. from the drawings to alliances with the opponents

Trade relations between the United States and India were witnessing a major escalation after US President Donald Trump decided to increase customs duties on Indian goods to 50%, bypassing the rates imposed on other commercial partners such as South Korea, the European Union and Japan. This escalation is a remarkable shift in the friendly relationship that links Trump and the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, for which the world thought that New -Delhi would get the first or second commercial agreement amid the launch of many hot statements from both sides. In the next report, we try to review the possible causes behind the increase in differences between the largest economy in the world and the fifth in terms of size, and the impact of this on Indian and US economies, and the efforts of New -Delhi to address the situation. The spark of commercial dispute has contributed several factors that include political wrong calculations and the failure to include references and accumulated tensions between India and the United States to the collapse of a trade agreement between the largest and fifth largest economy in the world, despite the great progress in the negotiations, according to Reuters cited officials of Indian and US sides last June. After five rounds of commercial negotiations, Indian officials were very confident in the conclusion of a satisfactory agreement with the United States. However, Trump imposed very high customs duties (50%) on Indian goods due to the continued purchase of Russian energy, as India gets about 37% of its oil imports from Russia. These consignments are sold for a discount on market prices. Modi said that his country is not targeted fairly by the United States, and defends the Russian oil consumption as “essential” to support the Indian economy. Also read: After Trump’s fees .. Does India use the import of oil from the Middle East instead of Russia? India and the extra confidence of India believed that it had already made great concessions after the visits of trade ministers and US vice president, such as canceling the fees at 40% of US industrial exports and gradually lowering the fees on cars and alcohol. Modi also agreed to double bilateral trade by 2030 to $ 500 billion, with the obligation to buy US energy and defense of $ 25 billion. But India seems to have trusted confidence after Trump’s statements about an imminent agreement, which led to its rigor, especially in the files of agriculture and dairy products. “Trump wanted a big advertisement that attracted attention to the expansion of market access, investments and major purchases,” said a resident source in Washington. According to Reuters, an Indian official admitted that New -Delhi was not ready to match what others offered. “At some point, the two parties were very close to signing the agreement,” former US commercial actor Mark Lingott said, adding: “The missing element was the presence of a direct contact line between President Trump and Premier Modes.” Friendly fire between Trump and Moody has accused Trump’s government of being moody to refuse to facilitate the access of US goods to the Indian market, and has criticized India’s accession to the ‘Brics’ developing economies. India was reluctant to open its markets for US agricultural products in particular with the aim of protecting the agricultural and dairy sector. Modi said in the first statement after the imposition of the drawings: “He will not compromise the interests of the country’s farmers, even if he had to pay a heavy price. For us, the well -being of our farmers is the highest,” according to the newspaper “economic times of India”. He added in response to the list of Trump’s desires: “India will never be compromised about the health of his farmers, the dairy sector and the fish hunter. I personally know that I will pay a heavy price as a result.” Trump has also strengthened his attacks against India over the past few days, describing his economy as “death”, and his customs barriers as “hateful”, and his people who were indifferent to the suffering of the Ukrainians. In a post on the “X” platform, Trump clearly wrote: “I don’t care what India is doing with Russia … they can demolish their dilapidated economy together.” Daniel Lam, head of the stock strategies at Standard Charterd Wildi -Solichon, recently said in his participation in the topic of the “Asian report” episode on “Al Sharq” that Trump strives for this decision, to remove India from Russia, or any alliances he sees as hostile to the group “Brics”, but he believes it is difficult for India to do Russian goods. Concentration with the opponents of Washington. The Russian Chinese -Indian approach is the greatest danger the United States is currently facing under the trade war, as India and Russia are closer to Moscow due to Trump’s commercial policy, and Moody intends to visit Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of August. Moody also invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit his country to attend the Indian-Russian annual summit later this year in India. In the aftermath of the announcement of the US drawings, India signed agreements with Russia to improve collaboration in the field of space science and technology, rare minerals, aluminum, fertilizer streaks, railways and other sectors. The next day, Indian national security advisor Agit Dofal Putin met on the sidelines of the national security advisors of the “Brics” in the city of St. Petersburg. In addition to this triangle, Modi also has with Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva – who signed an executive order by setting up 50% fees on his country – to set up unilateral rates against their two countries, and renewed plans to improve trade relations. On the other hand, the Indian government has suspended plans to buy new US weapons and aircraft, according to three officials who spoke to ‘Reuters’. Two officials reported that India was planning to send Rajinat Singh to Washington to Washington in the coming weeks to vote on arms contracts, but the trip was canceled. Reuters quoted one of the officials, saying that it is possible to continue with defensive purchases once the vision is clear about customs duties and the direction of bilateral relations, but “It is not expected to be expected.” An American battle for the Indian economy that will cause Trump fees on the 50% exports of India will do more damage to the country’s economy, which is already suffering from the slowdown, and this could lead to a contraction of GDP to one percentage point, according to analysts. This will not be exporting of many industries to the United States to compete. Also read: Analysts: Trump fees by 50% can reduce the growth of India by 1%, saying that “Bloomberg Economics” estimates that the cumulative fees, which are not only higher than those imposed on India’s competitors such as Vietnam, but also from the execution of China, can reduce exports to the percentage. The Indian Central Bank estimates the growth of the economy by 6.5% in the financial year 2026, which is the same percentage registered in the previous year, and much less than the average growth of 8%, recorded in the years before. Analyst Citna Kumar and Adam Farrar wrote that “the total impact on GDP in medium term could be higher to 1.1%,” once fees on sectors such as medicine and electronics are announced. It is reported that the United States is the largest commercial partner of India, and the amount of bilateral trade between them reached 129 billion dollars in 2024, with a $ 45.7 billion surplus in favor of India, according to the US government trading data. The search for alternatives, Damo Ravi, the Secretary of Economic Relations with the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said his country would look for alternative opportunities if the United States became a ‘difficult export environment’, pointing to South Asia, Africa and Latin America as possible markets. He added: “It is very natural for countries to look for alternatives if they face high customs barriers in any world region.” Analysts also expect the government and the Indian central bank to provide political support to stimulate growth. The new fees cover two -thirds of India’s exports to the United States, which are valued at $ 58 billion, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. The Global Investment Bank expected the Indian Central Central to lower the interest rates twice in a row by a quarter percentage point for each, and the federal government is likely to stop the policy of temporarily controling public financial conditions, and this could increase the formation of the capital. To support local demand. Officials in New -Delhi are also considering making commercial concessions to the United States. India is the 21 -day deadline before the fees are implemented is an opportunity to maintain open negotiating channels, and does not intend to respond now. India places its top priorities to reach a bilateral trade agreement, and evaluates the possibility of setting special concessions in agricultural and dairy production sectors to meet the US claims, while reducing the impact on local producers, “according to Bloomber.” The future of relationships at stake, while Trump is trying to test the extent of modes’s ability to maintain his strategic neutrality and to stay away from Russia, American experts believe that the damage that the bilateral relationships are deep is deep, and India can reflect the strategic neutrality. The most dangerous is that Trump has announced the signing of an agreement with Pakistan to develop his oil reserves, which is a threat to the local status of India. Pakistan (agreement) has reached 19% of customs, which are significantly less than 29% less than Trump at the beginning, and a major difference from other countries in South Asia, such as India and Bangladesh. The two parties discuss the increase in the ability of US products to reach the market, reduce the obstacles for non -pleasant, and what “the rules of origin” are called. Also read: Pakistan places the finish of the trade agreement with America. Lamb expects India to continue its negotiations with the United States to reach a solution in the end, but he excludes that he will give up a party in favor of another, or to give up his balanced strategy in his international relations. He concluded that India may need to increase the expansion of its trading partners and increase the levels of local consumption, just like China.