Bangladesh -Dollar Trade that must be hit by India's port restrictions could lose $ 770 million | Mint

New Delhi: India’s decision to impose port restrictions on goods in Bangladesh could harm Dhaka’s dollar-earning trade, especially in garments and processed goods, at a time when the country already navigates a difficult economic and geopolitical shift. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a trade thinking, the move of New -Delhi can import $ 770 million from Bangladesh Limited – mostly 42% of the total incoming consignments – by hindering various goods of land routes and limiting them to a few ports. India’s move, which affects important items such as Readymade garments, processed foods and plastic, comes against the backdrop of Dhaka’s growing closeness to China and a series of recent trade restrictions targeting Indian exports, GTRI said in a report on Sunday. The biggest blow would be for the most important export of Bangladesh customers, who earned $ 618 million between April 2024 and February 2025. India will allow such consignments only by the ports of Nhava Sheva and Kolkata, and the country’s notice published on May 17 by the director -general of foreign trade. Several other goods, including flavored drinks, plastic items, cotton waste and wood furniture – about $ 153 million – are completely blocked to enter India via land routes, especially through Western Bengal and northeastern states. However, imports of fish, edible oils, liquid petroleum gas and crushed stone are not limited. In addition, the export of Bangladesh goods to Nepal and Bhutan, transported by India, will also not be affected. A retaliation? Although the Indian government has not officially made a geopolitical reason for its decision, the trade action is carefully following Bangladesh’s restrictions on Indian exports. This includes a ban on yarn through five key land ports, rice on rice and restrictions on items such as paper, tobacco and milk powder, says Ajay Srivastava, co-founder of GTRI. Dhaka also set a transport fee on the Indian cargo that went through its territory, which ended years of zero-fee movement under regional cooperation frameworks. Srivastava said Indian exporters who already have delays, inspections and market barriers are a calculated response. Indian textile manufacturers have long raised concerns about unfair competition. While Indian firms pay a 5% goods and turnover taxes on locally acquired materials, Bangladesh exporters benefit from service-free Chinese structure and export incentives benefit, allowing them to undermine Indian prices by 10-15%, according to the GTRI report. With the best global retailers such as H&M, Zara, Primark, Uniqlo and Walmart obtained from Bangladesh, some of the stock finds its way to the Indian market, which hurts domestic manufacturers, the report added. Chinese influence the larger story lies in the relationship in India-Bangladesh in Dhaka’s shifting political and economic alignment. Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s pro-Indian government in mid-2024, Bangladesh has moved closer to China. Bangladesh’s interim prime minister, Muhammad Yunus, signed $ 2.1 billion’s transactions during a visit to Beijing in March. China has since embarked on sensitive projects such as the Teesta River development, an area of ​​long-standing collaboration in India-Bangladesh, which raises concerns in New Delhi over the growing role of China in the region. “While Bangladesh did not openly support Pakistan during the recent escalation of India-Pakistan, the silence and the growing tilt to China are watching closely in Indian policy circles,” says Abhash Kumar, trade expert and assistant professor of economics at Delhi University. “The latest trade walls are not seen in isolation, but as part of a broader strategic recalibration, where India uses economic levers to indicate its dissatisfaction,” Kumar added. Hope for reconciliation despite the current tensions between India and Bangladesh, experts say that the relationship is no longer restored. The data of years of connectivity and co-operative trading in the Ministry of Trade show that bilateral trade between the two countries was at 2022-23, with $ 12.22 billion of exports and $ 2.02 billion in imports. Goods worth $ 10.40 billion exported to Bangladesh and imported $ 1.83 billion, which brought the total trade to $ 12.23 billion during the period. reciprocal rates on April 2.