US stocks are facing a Trump -fee test in the face of exaggeration in their judgments

It seems that the prevailing opinion of Wall Street is that the last height in the US stock market is at record levels that have not yet been calm, and the reason is that when President Donald Trump, when it comes to threats of customs duties, is being loud, but not implemented. Regardless of Trump’s final decisions on customs duties on importing the rest of the commercial partners, some prominent market votes say investors reduce these threats, and even because of the risk of customs already imposed. The customs duties that the US importers jumped on average to more than 13%, or more than five times last year, jumped according to the estimates of Bloomberg Economics. Alastir Binder, head of the global stock strategy at HSBC, believes that the highest customs are sufficient to reduce the growth of corporate profits by 5% or more. With the “S & B500” index circulating when it approaches the highest assessments in the Post cofid period, the anxiety of the disappointment in the results of the profits and economic data of companies comes during the rest of the year, which can withdraw the mat under the last height. “Given our dependent prices on highly optimistic expectations, any disappointment or deviation from these optimistic expectations can re -evaluate the shares,” says Paul Nolt, the market strategy and a biggest wealth consultant at Murphy & Silfst Wittith Managing in Dallas. He added: “There is a balloon in Wall Street in search of a pin, and no one knows where this pen came from. It could be the description of the current situation.” What is the extent of the damage that this pen can cause to stock indicators that have reached high levels? For Nolt, he believes that the market is exposed to a real falling road: a 20% sales wave or more. Even some of the most optimistic about the high prices in Wall Street are prepared for the disturbances. One of these Mike Wilson, the main US stock strategy in “Morgan Stanley”, who became from pessimistic to very optimistic after the market that was successful in recovering from the heavy buying wave earlier this year. Although it is optimistic about the shares for 12 months and does not expect a sharp fall in prices, it is the risk that the short -term profit directions will be worse than expected, which can cause some disorder in the market. He added: “There is a risk in the third quarter, as companies can be affected by customs duties, which can reduce the margins a bit, that is, a drop of between 5% and 10%.” While we are still at the beginning of the financial reports season for the latest quarterly profits, the accounts have begun that the imposed customs have already begun to have an impact. Companies are subject to multiple and wide customs lights, of which 10% are on the goods of most countries and an extra 20% on China, which is a fee that Trump is connected to the anesthesia of the Fintanel. The highest cost expects “General Mills” last month to increase the cost of its products by 1% and 2%, and it works to lower these costs by replacing the ingredients and redesigning the products. The Oxford Industries, which owns the “Tommy Bahama” trademark, has reduced its profit expectations for this year, as it expects an extra cost increase by about $ 40 million due to customs tariffs. Fedex, which gives an indication of the economy, has warned that its profits will be worse in this quarter than expected, as the trade war is still printing its business, including the high profitability shatings between the United States and China. Wall Street is expected to issue new numbers this week, as many large companies exposed to customs tariffs and the economy announces their results. General Motors faces the definitions imposed on the car sector, while the separation of Capital One Financial can emphasize the power of the US consumer. At the level of the macro economic level, there are indications that customs duties may have already appeared in the fine details of economic reports. The inflation data released on Tuesday showed the acceleration of basic consumer prices, and the categories of commodities exposed to customs duties, such as furniture and clothing, showed that businesses are starting to bear higher costs. There may be stronger warning signs during the upcoming period. Bender, of HSBC, awaits falling retail sales later in the year, and high prices after companies consumed the shares of commodities they bought when the customs rates were low. The growing growth in general, the current customs duties will reduce the size of the US economy by about 1.6% during the next two or three years, compared to a scenario that is not fees, according to the estimates of Bloomberg Economics. Economists say consumer prices will rise by 0.9%. Any additional height, or even a firmness in inflation, can put the hope of stock investors in the lowering of interest rates this year, even with more insults that Trump will direct to federal reserve president Jerome Powell. Of course, not all optimistic about the markets of their expectations. Many people in Wall Street see reasons that allow shares to stay at their high levels. Goldman Sachs strategy indicates that low interest rates, the decline of unemployment and corporate profitability justify excessive assessments. The impact of the Tax and Spending Act, in addition, the draft tax and spending law that Trump signed this month, makes a lot of tax discounts on companies permanently. According to Lilson of Morgan Stanley, the draft law alone will increase the profits of the S&B 500 index by 5% and 7%. Nathan Soninberg, investment investment at the family office in “Bethkirne”, said investors had entered this year and expected the Trump administration to apply more austerity measures. “He added that with the approval of the Expenditure Bill,” we realized that its motivational impact would be greater. “However, the volatile nature of US President Donald Trump means that any codification of the financial and economic consequences of his policies related to customs duties should not be done with pencils. The risk still that the total levels will increase significantly by the deadline on the first of August. If the effect of inflation occurs, and affects the actual income available to consumers, I think the markets will start to pay attention, “Pahano Bauga, the main strategy at UPS Bank, said on Monday at Bloomberg TV.