Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Bulls appear on the ropes

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building is depicted next to a police wagon in Mumbai, India, last week I wrote that the unique rally (unique because it was not supported by statistical data) could continue, provided the Nifty managed to clean the 25,550 levels. Read the piece here. The index could not clean this resistance area on even one day of the week. This set the grounds for an attempt to take a profit, which developed into a short time of sales pressure. The significant aspect of last week’s rally is that retailers still nursing a bullish kater nurse. It is carried by the MTF (margin-funded trade that borrowed money to investors through brokers), which rose to £ 99,577 (last week £ 96,338). I have often expressed concern about the rising leverage (trade or investment with borrowed money), resulting in a higher intraday pricing (statistical ßeta), as well as the perception of an overcrowded exit. Overcrowded exits occur when panic causes emotional sale at whatever pricing security is traded. This leads prices sharply lower. I saw very light signs of this panic last week. Remember that this week is an expiry week, and traders tend to track some of their open trades rather than roll all their exposure. The other trigger is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) who announces its decision on interest rates on October 1, 2025. This means that banking and financial stocks are likely to remain in the spotlight. With a weight of 36.28% in the Nifty, it’s a single sector. Either way, the sector tends to take the Nifty 50 with it. In the commodity space, industrial metals have risen according to expected lines. It is a routine end of the month, along with erosion in the purchasing power of Fiat currencies worldwide. This leads to the purchase of real assets (commodities) – industrial and precious. Whether it will increase the share prices of metal mining businesses will depend on the overall sentiment prevailing this week. If metal prices continue to rise, metal mining share prices may have limited disadvantage. Oil and gas rise due to seasonal considerations, as winter months cause a demand -based rally in energy commodities. Along with the escalation in the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure and the hurricane season in the US, prices may remain firm. It is not a structural bull market, but a cyclical one. I put out my neck and claim that energy markets are well delivered. Oil marketing and exploration companies can see a higher participation in the trader this week. Bullion remains a long-term bullish story, as I have been advocating since last year. Look further than 2025 (if not further), stick to deliveries and avoid leverage. The rally has legs to run a little more. Fixed revenue investors should continue to keep the powder dry at least until RBI announced its decision on Wednesday. I still believe that the cost of funds will continue to increase, even if the coupon rate is reduced. If an expiration week, volatility will be higher, and traders will be focused on rolling over and/or closing their trades, rather than starting fresh leverage with derivatives. Also, remember that expiration means some short covering. This means that declines can become cushion. Trade light and keep maintaining the fences of the star risk on your trades. This can be the only determining factor between profits and losses in the near future. A tutorial video on the star risk (Hacienda) hedges is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Aungqxhbfk Again View Mirror Let us judge what happened last week so we can guess what to expect in the coming week. The decline was led by the broad-based Nifty, and the bank Nifty brought the back. A fixed US dollar index (DXY) dragged sentiments further. Defensive buying accelerates in bullying. Oil rose on geopolitical concerns, while gas prices rose at the beginning of winter. Much of the ‘rally’ is nothing but the exceptionally high cost-of-carrier) that is in winter routine. The rupee tested new lows and dampened sentiments as the Indian sovereign effects of ten years increased. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has lost significant market cap, suggesting that the sale was broadly based. Market -wide position restrictions (MWPL) have risen regularly. US head indices have fallen and supply the wind with our markets. Take a look at the complete image change in the prognosis of asset prices – currency and bond markets weighed in sentiments, the data source for sentiments – Vijay L. Bhambwani Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple, yet very accurate measure to measure the conviction levels of retailers – where they have money. I measure what percentage of turnover contributed lower and higher-risk instruments. If they trade more futures, which require substantial capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the term space, index futures are less volatile than stock material. A higher footprint in the futures contracts shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are the average of all trading days of the week) last week, the turnover contribution in higher volatility and capital-intensive futures contract segments has risen. Most of it is due to the roll -up process, in which traders transfer their trades from the expired month to the next month. Equity options have contributed slightly higher turnover in lower risk, lower capital outlay segment -again due to roll -over. The general risk appetite was strong, as traders were willing to transfer their trades to the next month despite the price. Take a look at the full image NSE F&O component turnover breakthrough Prognosis -Risk tide remains robust in F&O data source -Vijay L. Bhambwani Matryoshka Analysis Let’s peel the layer to a layer of statistical data to get to the core message of the markets. The first chart I share is the NSE Advance-Decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way the winds blow. This simple yet accurate indicator calculates the ratio of rising to falling stocks. As long as the shares of the losers are, bulls are dominant. These metric measures the risk appetite of one marshmallow traders. These are pure intraday traders. The Nifty recorded the biggest weekly losses in the 20-week period covered by the map. The Advance-Decline ratio was also poor at 0.47 (previous week 1.22), which tells us that there were 47 winers for every 100 losers. Intraday conviction has simply crumbled over the past week. This ratio should remain above the 1.0 level with rising prices to indicate a sustainable rally. A tutorial video on the Marshmallow theory in trading is here-www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFNKVTSCWFY View Full Image NSE Advance-Decline Ratio Prognosis-Intraday Buying Conviction Fell of a Cliff Data Source-Vijay L. Bhambwani Position Limits. It measures the amount of exposure used by traders in the derivatives (F&O) as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a measure of the risk appetite of two marshmallow traders. It is with deep pockets with high compensation that roll their trades to the next session/s. The MWPL reading rose slightly and was higher than the comparable period last month. This is because this derivative cycle is longer, and traders have more days to trade. However, the lecture remains under the peak made in the July 2025 series. It tells me that traders were evidently optimistic about increasing exposure levels. We need to monitor the routine-after-expiration fall. If the decline is below recent levels, it may indicate nervousness. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways is available here-HTTPs: //www.youtube.com/watch? V = t2qbguk7qri view Full Image Marketwide Position Limits Prognosis-Employment Traders was an optimistic data source vijay l. bhambwani. The third Chart I Share is my in-house indicator. It measures the power in any price increase. Last week, both indices fell, but the pieces of lectures set out. While the Nifty fell at a higher momentum, the bank Nifty dropped the momentum last week. This means that the bank Nifty fell more on routine -relaxing rather than powerful sale. Look at the correlation between both indices. The bank Nifty can fall in the Nifty because of the human weight bank orders. Check out the full image Nifty and Bank Nifty Impetus Prognosis Bank Nifty Resistance to Forful Dalle Data Source-Vijay L. Bhambwani The final chart I share is my internal indicator ‘LWTD.’ It calculates elevator, weight, pushing and dragging that is encountered by any security. These are four forces with which any powered aircraft face during the flight, so applying them to traded securities helps a trader to estimate general sentiments. Last week I wrote that the LWTD indicator indicates improved fresh buying opportunities. However, with the 25,550 hurdle on the evil unbeaten, the index crumbled under sales pressure. The LWTD is now on -0.54 (previous week: 0.49). It tells me to be fresh buying elusive, with the short covering of the dilapidated, an open possibility. A tutorial video on the interpretation of the LWTD indicator is here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAG076z1adk View Full Image Nifty and LWTD Indicator Prognosis – Expect a limited purchase of this week – Vijay L. Loofed Aarish, who has been to the road this past week, the Nify Loofed Aarish who has been to the road this past week. Rally past the clumsy red trend line. The price is on scoring the moving average of 25 weeks, which is a proxy for the average cost of six months of any retail investor. This indicates nervousness. As I pointed out last week, this average can be a great support, as I pointed out on the 24,550 levels last week. The support also remains the level to look at this week. On the other hand, the Nifty must overcome the 25,550 obstacle provided by the clumsy line before we can assume that the next phase of the rally was started. For now, bulls seem to be on the ropes. If forged short coverage leads to follow -up purchases, sentiments can improve. If you do not succeed, fresh declines are not excluded. Look at the full image Nifty Spot Prognosis-Nifty is at a particular place on a support card source-www.tradingview.com your call to act, check the 24.550 level as support in the short term. Only a sustained trade above the 25,550 level confirms the possibility of a fresh rally. Last week I framed between 56,425 – 54,500 and 25.750 – 24.900 on the bank Nifty and Nifty, respectively. Due to sales pressure, both indexes have violated their support levels with a thin margin. This week I estimate I range from 55.375 – 53,400 and 25.100 – 24.200 on the bench respectively Nifty and Nifty. Trading light with strict stop losses. Avoid brands with distributions wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L. Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of www.bsplindia.com, its own trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani. Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #Ticker by Vijay L Bhambwani Read next story