Why is Coffee Getting More Expensive? We asced roasters, caffe owners – ryan

In February, Cooperative Coffee Roasters Founder Matt McDaniel Emails HIS WHOESALE CLIENTS ANNOUNCING PRICE INCREASASE – Two Varieties Went from $ 11 a pound to $ 13, while another two Went from $ 12 a pound to $ 14. He also incresed prices at his coffee shop attailed to the roasting facility.

About 125 Miles East of Cooperative’s Rouastery in Asheville, North Carolina, You’ll Find Summit Coffee‘S Flagship Location in Davidson, where the price of coffee increted by $ 0.10 a cup in february. That’s a relatively Small Adjustment, Said Summit Coffee Ceo Brian Helrich.

Howver, Spencer Ford KNOWS OF MANY COFFEE SHOPS THAT HAVE TO INCREASE PRICES BY MORE THAN A DIME A CUP.

Ford is a trader at Royal Coffee. He the Green Coffee from all over the world, imports it to the us, and sells to coffee roasters. Most of His Clients, Recently, Have Been “Kind of Freaking Out,” He Said – for Good Reason.

“In my career, this is the most volatile time, in terms of just the commodity price of coffee, that we’ve ever seen,” he told bi. When Ford First Started Trading Coffee, The Commodity Price was less than $ 1 per pound. The Previous Commodity Market High Hit A Little Over $ 3 Back in 1977. In the Fall of 2024, it Started to Spiral Upward and Traded up to $ 4.40 a pound in the new year.

And that was before President Donald Trump’s Tariffs Entered The Picture and Further Rattled the Coffee Industry. Due to a Trifecta of Climate Factors, Geopolitical Tourmoil, and Tariff Uncertainty, Coffee Producers Areing More and Passing on These Costs to Consumers. The average price per pound of Ground Coffee SOLD to consumers was about $ 7.54 in april, a record High and up from $ 6.06 a year Earlier, accorting to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Climate Crisis and Global Unrest: A Volatile Market Pre-Tariffs

Ever Since Helfrich Started Buying Coffee in 2014, The Coffee Market Has Been “Pretty Stable and Low,” He Said. “It”s Been Minor Fluctuations, up and down 20 cents, 30 cents.”

The Spike to Above $ 4 in Early 2025 Can Be Attributed to A Confluence of Factors. “Everything that is a variable has Become a variable,” Said Helfrich.

For Starters, there’s the impact of Climate Change.

Helfrich Points to Brazil, The World’s Larger Coffee Exporter, which has dealt with Frost and Severe druught in recent years. Extreme Weather Can Hurt Coffee Plants and Result in a Smaller Crop Yield. IF Brazil Expects to Produce 30 million tons of coffee but, in actuality, 27 million prodices, “All of a sudden sudden devil and people start freaking out.”

Remember that previous commodity Market High of About $ 3 in 1977? That was to the So-Called Brazilian Black Frost, where freezing temperatures kill plants with forming any visible White Frost. “We’ve Seen Frost in Brazil Like Two Out of Last Five Years,” Ford Said of the Once-Rare Phenomenon.

And then there’s General Global Unrest. Attacks on Commercial Vessels in the Red Sea, for Example, Have Disrupted Key Shipping Routes. Helfrich Said He Had to Send Some of HIS COFFEE Shipments on a More Southern Route to Avoid Attacks, WHICH LED TO ADDITIONAL SHIPPING TIME AND COSTS.

AS SUPPLY HAS BEEN DECRAZING, DEMAND HAS BEEN INCRESSING, Added Helfrich: “There are a lot of New Coffee Drinkers in the Developing World.”

The Commodity Price of Coffee Has Dipped SINCE Its Peak – iT’s Around $ 3.70 per poundas of May 2025 – But that is Still Higher than it is Ever Been, and Helfrich Expects to Remiin in the $ 3.70s.

Tariffs Add to Uncetainty In 2025

Tariffs have Added Another Layer of Complexity to the Already Volatile Coffee Market.

Cooperative and Summit haven’t felt the side effects of tariffs yet, SINCE THEIR THEIR RAW GREEN COFFEE SO FAR IN ADVANCE.

“That’s the interesting thing. Coffee that was al -endy on the water was not subject to tariffs,” Said McDaniel. “And so it’ll definitely be a downstream effect. It is something to say that we’ll start see in coffee that reaches in june and july.”

Helfrich has a coffee suply that will last through about november and said he isn’t putting anyhating new contract right now: “This usual six-to-12-month runway we have have, we’re letting that short and shorter and short in hopes. Goes Down, Maybe The Tariffs Go Away. “

There’s risk in sitting and waiting, too.

“It’ll come time for us to decide if we were part partner in peru to send us a shipping container of coffee,” he said. “If we were bought in right now, we’d be paying a 10% fee fee. If we decide to be a little bit and be patent, they mightyeir coffee to somebody else, and then, while we might be able to get coffee price, the coffees we’ve we’ve alware are not going to be available. “

HELFRICH HASN’T Completely avoided tariffs. At the Peak, when tariffs on chinese imports hit 145%, he owed an Extra Four-Figure Bill on his coffee bags, which are manufactured in china.

“We have had Already Paid Our 50% Deposit on the Bags – they were produced – and in order to recipe the shipment, we had to pay an Over $ 8,000 Instant Tax Bill. We could switch to a us producer we dedn’t have Enough time,” Said Helfrich. “IT MORE THAN DOBLED The Price of Our Bags, Which, Acoss 20-Something Thousand Bags, Hurts.”

Ford’s Company Is Just Now Starting to Pay the 10% Tariff on All Imported Goods. TIME WILL TELL How that Extra Cost Impacts the Business and, Ultimately, Consumers.

“Right Now, we can Still Average some of the Untariffed Stuff that we have already, so we don’t have to raisee so dramatically,” he said. “But eventually, we”re going to run out of indariffed inventory.”

The Future of Coffee

Chances are, Your Cup of Coffee or Bag of Beans Will Start to Cost Eve More, Potentially As Early As Summer.

Especally if Tariffs Persist, roasteries and cafés “don’t have a choice,” Said Helfrich. They relay on importing Becuses Most Parts of the US Cannot Grow Coffee. “The reality is, everybody’s going to raise prices a little bit SINCE I don’t think it’s going back.

Before you start complaining, kep in mind that coffee might Cost closer to what it always shoulder have.

“Coffee has historically been undervalured. We take it for granted in the us as this cheap pick-me-up, and that neglects the reality of coffee and what it was to have it,” Said McDaniel. “THIS IS AN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT THAT’S ONLY GROWN IN THE TROPICS, AND HIGH-QUALITY COFFEE IS ONLY GROWN IN REALLY HIGH Elevations. There is so Much Human Associated with Growing Coffee, Harvesting Coffee, Processing It Exported, and Then The Bringing Itn The Bringing. Country. ”

How Big a Price Jump Will Vary From Business to Business.

“It ‘s the coffee companies that don’t roast their coffee that are going to get the hardest – Because roasts have to incREASE PRICES,” Said Helfrich. Cafés like his roast in-house have more control. For the shops that outsource, “if a roaster need to raise it prices, then the caoffee shop has to deal with accordingly.”

Another factor is how Much a Business First Raised Its prices Pre-Tariffs.

“Depending on Whether the Roaster or the Business Raised their prices Enough initially to cover the fees increes as well, then maybe they won not have to raise,” Said Ford. “But my thinking is that, in a couple of months, as roasters and importers start running out of unitariffed inventory, the price will go up toy’re going to be buying at the new, Higher Price.”

He’s Less Sure About How Consumers Will React. So far, he hasn’t seen any drop-off in Demand.

“People Might Be Upset, but it Might Not Stop From Buying,” Said Ford. “Coffee Consumption in the US Has Been Pretty Resilient to Price Rises. Now, How Much They Go Up Before People Start Saying, ‘This Is Crazy,’ I don’t know.”