The Chinese yuan is on track for its best annual performance in 5 years as growing optimism about China’s assets and economy overshadowed concerns related to trade tensions with the United States. The yuan traded outside China rose about 4% against the US dollar during 2025, supported by the authorities’ interventions by setting daily reference exchange rates, and by a rising wave in Chinese stocks that attracted investment flows, in addition to the decline in the US dollar. Analysts remain largely optimistic about the currency’s performance in 2026, as Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for it last month. The rise of the yuan The rise of the yuan this year represents a clear shift compared to what happened during the first round of the US-China trade war that broke out in 2018, as the currency then fell by more than 13% from its peak in March 2018 to its bottom in September 2019, driven by speculation that China will be forced to devalue the growth after yuan support. Read more: Hedge funds are stepping up their bets on the rise of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. “The Chinese yuan has room to rise further from current levels, and technical forecasts suggest that the US dollar exchange rate against the yuan will move to 7 yuan per US dollar during 2026,” said Wei Khun Zhong, chief Asia-Pacific market strategist at BNY in Hong Kong. “Maintaining a stable and strong yuan plays an important role in improving market and investor confidence.” Despite the overall gains this year, the yuan’s path has not been without setbacks. The currency witnessed widespread selling during the chaos unleashed by US President Donald Trump over tariffs last April, then remained weak in the middle of this year under pressure from the slowing economy. The currency only started to recover again last August, with global risk sentiment improving. The weakness of the US dollar has benefited the yuan, as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen about 7% this year amid fears of political uncertainty in the United States and a worsening budget deficit. China’s approach to dealing with its current trade war with Washington differs from the one it adopted during the first Trump administration. In the 2018-2019 period, options were limited, with the Chinese economy then largely dependent on the American consumer. Today, China has expanded its export base to countries of the global south, establishing its superiority in essential supply chains such as rare earths. Optimistic expectations for the Chinese currency. Most analysts expect the yuan to continue its gains in the coming months. Lin Lee, head of global markets research for Asia at MUFG Bank in Hong Kong, expects interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve to weaken the US dollar, which will support the yuan and other Asian currencies next year. She said that the Chinese currency could end up at 6.95 yuan against the US dollar next year. Also read: The decline in the attractiveness of the dollar in China paves the way for the rise of the yuan. Goldman Sachs also raised its expectations for the yuan circulating in China last month, based on optimism in the performance of exports and the current account surplus. He pointed out that the currency could reach 6.95 within three months and 6.85 within a year. The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group believes that selling the US dollar against the yuan will be one of the best trading bets for the year 2026. Expect Chinese exporters to convert more of their dollar earnings into the yuan ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, in addition to converting US dollar balances deposited with commercial banks. The Chinese currency is “significantly undervalued” There are voices calling on the Chinese authorities to allow a faster rate of appreciation for the yuan. Former US Treasury officials Brad Setser and Mark Sobel wrote an article last month saying it was time to encourage a significant appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar on a trade-weighted basis, given that the currency is “significantly undervalued.” They pointed out that the yuan is currently about 18% below its fair value. The Chinese central bank is moving to stop the yuan’s decline against the dollar. More details here Stephen Jin, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, believes that pressure on the yuan to rise over the next year will increase, and that allowing additional gains will be inevitable. He wrote in a note last month: “The pressure will be one-way and increasing.” One of the most prominent arguments of those who are optimistic about the rise of the yuan is based on the decline in value compared to the currencies of China’s trading partners. The real effective exchange rate index – which excludes the impact of inflation – shows that it is close to its lowest levels since 2011, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Allowing too rapid currency gains carries risks, however, as a too high yuan could undermine Chinese exports and thus growth, and encourage large inflows of hot money that could create asset bubbles and threaten financial stability. The People’s Bank of China’s position on the yuan The People’s Bank of China apparently wants to try to slow down the rate of the yuan’s appreciation. Today, the bank set the daily reference exchange rate at a level weaker than average analyst expectations, in a move similar to another it took last week for the first time since last July. Also read: Falling dollar pushes China to weaken yuan’s strength after months of support. Despite this, many in the market expect the yuan’s continued rise. “If the trade agreement talks go smoothly, the yuan could strengthen to 7 yuan against the US dollar by the end of the year, and could continue to rise to a range between 6.5 and 6.8 over the next year,” said Qi Lu, global markets strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Hong Kong. “If more international investors are convinced that China is on the road to recovery, the money that left three years ago will come back.”