Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limited All rights reserved. Borrowing costs have also risen, making capital-intensive offshore wind much more expensive. (AFP) Summary The aggressive push to cut fossil fuels has brought an unwelcome twist: dramatically higher electricity costs that are hurting the industry and weakening political consensus. European politicians pitched the continent’s green transition to voters as a win-win: Citizens would benefit from green jobs and cheap, abundant solar and wind energy along with a sharp reduction in carbon emissions. Nearly two decades later, the promise has been largely costly to consumers and damaging to the economy. Europe has managed to reduce carbon emissions more than any other region – by 30% from 2005 levels, compared to a 17% drop for the US. But along the way, the rush to renewable energy has helped drive up electricity prices in much of the continent. Germany now has the highest domestic electricity prices in the developed world, while the UK has the highest industrial electricity rates, according to a basket of 28 major economies analyzed by the International Energy Agency. Italy is not far behind. Average electricity prices for heavy industry in the European Union remain roughly twice those in the US and 50% above China. Energy prices have also become more volatile as the share of renewable energy has increased. This hurts industry and hurts Europe’s ability to attract key economic drivers such as artificial intelligence, which requires cheap and abundant electricity. The shift also adds to a cost-of-living shock for consumers that is fueling support for anti-establishment parties, which portray the green transition as an elite project that hurts workers, most consumers and regions. Energy analysts say it makes strategic sense for a continent that lacks the abundant oil and gas wealth enjoyed by the US and some other regions to diversify its energy sources. In some cases such as Spain, blessed with plenty of sunshine, or Nordic countries, with abundant hydropower to provide energy when its wind farms fall silent, the transition looks promising. France’s dependence on nuclear energy helps it keep costs down. But in much of the region, the transition risks backfiring, contributing to economic stagnation. “We are hemorrhaging the industry,” said Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at Oxford University who has advised British governments on energy policy. The British chemical company Ineos said in October that it would close two plants in West Germany due to high energy costs. In recent days, Exxon-Mobil said it would close its chemical plant in Scotland and threatened to exit Europe’s chemical industry, saying green policies made it uncompetitive. Across the continent, demand for electricity has fallen over the past 15 years, partly because energy is so expensive. With production also declining somewhat and infrastructure lagging behind, companies looking for more power are hitting roadblocks. In Ireland, the state grid operator imposed an effective moratorium on new data centers – which support cloud computing and AI – until 2028, after existing data centers drained more than a fifth of the country’s electricity supply last year. Jerome Evans, the CEO of a German data center operator, sought to expand his two data centers in Frankfurt, Germany’s Internet crossroads. The local power supplier told him he would have to wait a decade, until 2035, for the energy to power them. Some of Europe’s high energy prices are not the fault of policymakers or the green transition. Natural gas prices rose after the pandemic and again after Europe sharply reduced gas imports from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. But a good part of the increase is due to the shift to renewable energy, business executives and some economists say. While sunlight and wind are free, harnessing them involves significant infrastructure investment, including in battery storage for when the sun isn’t shining or the wind is blowing, and large excess capacity. These additional costs, obscured by subsidies and carbon taxes, mean that energy prices in places like Germany and the United Kingdom are likely to remain higher than other countries for years, some economists say. The stubbornly high prices, Helm said, indicate that it is the overall system cost that is driving prices. Aurora Energy Research, a consultancy, estimates that a “clean power” system in the UK will not start saving bill payers money until 2044. It is a similar story in Germany. By then, the economic damage done to Europe could be severe. In some places, the political consensus on the energy transition – once driven by dire climate warnings – is beginning to crack. Even with broad support on the continent for climate change mitigation, right-wing populist parties in France, Germany and the UK opposed to renewable energy targets and subsidies are gaining support. Germany’s government recently decided to build new gas-fired power plants. Diplomatic disputes between European countries have erupted over energy policy in recent months, while Norway’s coalition government collapsed after a revolt over the adoption of proposed EU rules to boost renewable energy. High-profile net-zero projects are being delayed or scrapped, particularly those involving green hydrogen, which the EU has put at the heart of its green plans as a possible fuel for heavy industry and means of energy storage. “You cannot afford, in top global competition, to be ideologically driven in the way you decide the energy system,” said Ebba Busch, Sweden’s deputy prime minister and energy minister. Busch criticized Germany for relying too heavily on solar and wind power, meaning it siphons energy from nearby countries on dull days, driving up prices. “Without energy we have no industry, and without industry we have no defense,” she said. The ‘or’ strategy Europe followed a different strategy in its green transition than any other region. The US, China, India, Brazil and others have followed an “and” strategy: They are aggressively rolling out renewable energy while simultaneously building large-scale fossil fuel power plants. Europe largely followed an “or” strategy: it raced to replace fossil fuels with solar, wind and biomass by heavily taxing carbon, subsidizing renewable energy and closing numerous fossil fuel power plants. Britain, which pioneered the use of coal for energy, last year became the first major industrialized country to close all its coal-fired power plants. It also banned new offshore oil and gas drilling. Denmark plans to phase out gas for home heating by 2035. About one-fifth of Germany’s municipal utilities plan to shut down their gas networks in the coming years, according to an October survey by the utilities’ trade association. The effect was to cut back on a major source of energy before any others were fully up and running. Many European consumers and businesses are now stuck in the worst of both worlds. They are still at the mercy of electricity prices linked to the cost of imported fossil fuels, while also bearing huge upfront costs to retrofit networks to handle the intermittent renewable power. In the UK, the cost of obtaining and delivering electricity accounts for just over half of household electricity bills, with the rest made up of a variety of levies and carbon taxes, including subsidies to pay for renewable energy and grid upgrades. These charges have risen faster than wholesale energy costs such as natural gas over the past decade, according to the Resolution Foundation, a think tank. Polls show half of UK consumers plan to ration energy use this winter as they struggle with wholesale electricity costs 80% higher than in the US Dina Ingram, an office administrator in London, used to switch on the central heating in her four-bedroom home for long periods. Now in the winter she can only afford to wear it for three hours a day. She doesn’t heat her bedroom at all. “I’m getting angry,” says the 62-year-old, who attributes the high prices to corporate greed. Europe’s decision to reduce fossil fuel use is historically unusual, economists say. In earlier energy transitions—from wood to coal, or coal to oil—countries continued to use the outgoing fuel while adding the new fuel on top. Worldwide, wood and coal are being burned in greater quantities than ever, mostly thanks to China. The policies could even inadvertently lead to higher emissions worldwide, some economists and chemical industry executives say. If European factories close because of high energy costs, their production is likely to be replaced by imports from places like China, where the carbon footprint for those products is much higher — even before shipping is calculated, according to Oxford Economics. Broken promises It wasn’t meant to be. Former British Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised in 2020 that the country would become the “Saudi Arabia of wind”, producing clean power that he said would be cheaper than coal and gas. Britain’s Labor Party has stayed the course, promising that household energy bills will fall by £300 a year, or about $400 annually, by 2030. But energy executives recently testified to parliament that by that date electricity bills would likely rise a further 20% in real terms—even if the price of inputs such as natural gas fell. Executives cited “non-commodity factors,” such as the cost of the new network. To try to protect consumers, the British government announced last week that it would pay for a costly renewables subsidy with general taxation rather than charging it to people’s bills. Britain is also racing to expand its nuclear power capacity. It last opened a nuclear reactor in 1995. Parts of the green transition were unexpectedly expensive. When Scotland’s biggest offshore wind farm opened in 2023, it was hailed as a symbol of Britain’s push into a new era of cheap, low-emission energy. But today British taxpayers spend tens of millions of pounds a year for the Seagreen wind farm not to produce electricity. Why? If the wind farm was left on continuously, it would send huge pulses of energy from northern Scotland to southern England that would fry the UK’s aging grid. Last year, the farm’s 114 turbines in the North Sea were disconnected more than 70% of the time; a gas plant in southern England fired instead to meet local electricity demand. The tab British consumers paid to “balance” the grid was £2.7 billion last year—a cost expected to rise to £8 billion by 2030. Borrowing costs have also risen, making capital-intensive offshore wind much more expensive. “The costs of the transition have very clearly never been acknowledged or recognized,” said Gordon Hughes, a professor at the University of Edinburgh and a former adviser on energy to the World Bank. “There is a massive dishonesty involved.” The continent’s cash-strapped governments now face a difficult choice: Push ahead with a rapid transition, or delay it to save money but risk prolonging the pain. Goldman Sachs Research expects that Europe will need to invest up to €3 trillion, or $3.48 trillion, in power generation and infrastructure over the next 10 years – roughly double what European countries have spent in the past decade. That’s a big ask for governments already facing tighter budgets due to an aging population, higher military spending and higher interest bills on debt. Waiting for a tipping point Proponents of renewable energy argue that high prices will be transitional. Since sunshine and wind are free and plentiful, renewable energy will eventually be cheaper once the new infrastructure is built, they say, while still costing money. s to get oil and gas out of the ground. If enough renewable energy and battery storage are implemented, fossil fuels will no longer determine the price of electricity and costs will disappear. “Energy costs in the future will be much lower,” once Europe’s renewable system is up and running, said Jacob Kirkegaard, a Brussels-based economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The problem comes at that point, Kirkegaard said. Some green entrepreneurs in the UK have begun to push politicians to ensure that the oil and gas industry can help ease the transition. Greg Jackson, founder of wind farm campaigner Octopus Energy, has called on the UK to renew offshore oil and gas exploration in the North Sea, so it does not have to ship in gas from around the world. Dale Vince, founder of Ecotricity and a climate activist who previously financed the protest group Just Stop Oil, wants lower taxes for existing oil and gas projects in the North Sea. “I think the outlook is bleak if we don’t get brave and reform our energy market,” Vince said. He believes the green transition will bear fruit, but says more must be done to prevent companies building the new green grid from cutting prices. The Tony Blair Institute, the think tank founded by the former British Labor leader, is calling for carbon taxes on natural gas in the UK to be suspended for five years to help lower electricity costs. Some prominent economists and industry executives have recently cast doubt on whether renewable energy will ever be cheaper in places like Germany and the UK that are not blessed with abundant sunshine and have bet big on wind. Onshore wind turbines in Germany produce about one fifth of their total theoretical output. Solar panels in Germany and the United Kingdom only use about 10% of their total theoretical output. “I have not seen any plan that facilitates green electricity in Central Europe at competitive costs,” said Miguel López, CEO of German industrial giant Thyssenkrupp. Helm, the Oxford professor, argues renewable energy will remain more expensive than fossil fuels because the overall system is more cumbersome. The UK used to meet its electricity demand with 60-70 gigawatts of power capacity. Now the country needs twice as much capacity, 120 gigawatts, to meet slightly lower demand—not to mention the additional storage facilities and interconnection supplies to and from mainland Europe. Twenty years ago, the UK was the most competitive location globally for Huntsman, a Texas-based chemicals maker, thanks to cheap North Sea energy, chief executive Peter Huntsman said. Over the past decade, the company has sold most of its UK assets and reduced its staff there from more than 2,000 to around 70. “The whole value chain has disappeared,” Huntsman said. Write to Tom Fairless at [email protected] and Max Colchester at [email protected] Get all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. more topics #renewable energy Read next story