Oil recovers as markets rise despite warnings of oversupply

Oil stabilizes near two-month low with focus on oversupply

The oil price fell near its lowest level in nearly two months, with concerns about oversupply offsetting the impact of optimism in broader financial markets. Brent crude settled above $61 a barrel, unchanged. Global stock indexes hit new record highs, after investor sentiment was boosted by support from the Federal Reserve’s cut in interest rates this week and its upbeat estimates of the US economy. However, pressure on oil markets continued due to expectations of a large surplus in supply next year. Fears of excess supply have contributed to crude oil prices falling to the bottom of their trading range since mid-October. The International Energy Agency on Thursday confirmed its forecast of an unprecedented surplus, albeit slightly lower than its forecast last month, and said global inventories had risen to their highest level in four years. Also read: OPUL: Oil demand growth is stable for the current and next year. Haris Khorshid, chief investment officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP, said: “The recovery is mainly benefiting from the same wave that is lifting stocks. Traders like to buy some risk in all areas, but the basic surplus has not disappeared.” Geopolitical tensions add limited support to prices. Geopolitical tensions may also add some support to oil prices. US President Donald Trump announced new sanctions against three nephews of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in addition to six oil tankers, after the United States seized a giant tanker off the coast of the Latin country on Wednesday. According to people familiar with the operation, the seizure of the ship was only the beginning of a new phase of the Trump administration’s intense pressure campaign against the Venezuelan president. The move, as a tool of “economic warfare,” aims to deprive Maduro of the oil revenue stream and force him to relinquish power, according to the people. Also read: Oil production recovers in Brazil after platforms collapsed in November. Khorshid said: “The escalation in Venezuela adds a risk premium that appears in the news, but it does not change the overall picture. Unless oil flows are suddenly choked by sanctions or shipping routes are disrupted, this is more noise than a structural shock.” In a related context, production in Brazil is recovering from outages that removed more than 300,000 barrels per day last month. The country is the largest supplier in Latin America and a major exporter of new barrels, along with the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. (Prices have been updated to reflect market movements)

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