Scientists now claim that our current situation with satellites in space is similar to a ‘house of cards’, where one solar storm can lead to what is called the Kessler syndrome, a theoretical event in which satellites collide, leading to a destructive situation in Earth’s orbit. A satellite in orbit. Image for representation. (Pixabay) Amid Elon Musk’s Starlink getting its final approval to launch in India and even reports of prices surfacing, it’s high time to see how sustainable the space congestion problem is as an increasing number of satellites squeeze Earth’s orbit. Scientists now claim that our current situation with satellites in space is similar to a ‘house of cards’, where one solar storm can lead to what is called the Kessler syndrome, a theoretical event in which satellites collide, leading to a destructive situation in Earth’s orbit. A filing by the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in 2023 shows that SpaceX’s Starlink satellites have made about 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the past four years, and the number could rise to a million every six months by 2028, according to University of Southampton astrophysics professor Hugh Lewis. With the number of collision avoidance maneuvers constantly increasing, the margin of error keeps getting smaller and smaller. If Kessler Syndrome, which is only theory so far, does happen, it could mean a complete stop to sending spacecraft into orbit, as their chances of colliding with space debris would also skyrocket. Solar storms could be tipping point Solar storms could be the tipping point that makes Kessler syndrome a reality, according to a team of researchers at Princeton University. Solar storms heat the atmosphere, which consequently increases atmospheric resistance. This results in more fuel requirement for satellites to continue to remain in orbit as well as to perform collision avoidance maneuvers. The researchers pointed to the “Gannon Storm” that occurred in May 2024, which caused more than half of Earth’s satellites in low orbit to use up parts of their fuel for repositioning purposes. Solar storms can also damage the communication and navigation systems of satellites, thereby increasing the chances of orbital collisions. What is the CRASH Clock? The researchers came up with a measure called the CRASH (Collision Realization and Significant Harm) clock to highlight the problem of increasing congestion in space. This measure describes the amount of time in which a catastrophic collision can occur if a solar storm causes all satellite operators to lose the ability to communicate as well as to avoid collisions by performing evasive maneuvers. According to calculations, the CRASH Clock is currently at 2.8 days, and in comparison it was 121 in 2018. This huge difference is mainly because SpaceX started lifting its mega-constellation Starlink satellites into space in 2019. The paper has been pre-printed on arxiv.org.